Energy Prospectus

One of the possible (major) disruptions could come in Nigeria, a substantial producer. Here is the story: Nigeria's oil is in the southern part of the country. The predominant tribe in the south is the Igbo. Most of the Igbo consider themselves Biafran's rather than Nigerians. Older readers may remember the Biafran civil war; the Igbo certainly do. Tensions are rising rapidly in the south as the Igbo still want their own country. Nigeria can't let that happen because the wells are on Igbo land. The current Igbo generation has no patience with the government's unfulfilled promises, and want change now. The government, in response, is cracking down on the Igbo leadership. This is unlikely to end well. If troubles continue to churn, we can expect the Iglo to take direct action, ie disrupt the oil flow, which is Nigeria's lifeline. We shall see.

My guess is that the situation in Iran gets worse and leads to new sanctions. Plus, Trump wants to fulfill his campaign promise of ripping up Obama's "Give a Nuke to Iran" deal. If we allow Iran to get a nuke, it will go down as the stupidest thing the U.S. has ever done.

This world depends on a steady flow of oil from the Middle East and there is nothing that is going to change that fact. We cannot allow Iran to become the dominant power in the region. Not with the leadership they have in place today.

2/3s of the OPEC cartel member counties are "failed states", so an "Unplanned Supply Outage" can happen in any one of them.