Energy Prospectus

The gas price you see quoted daily is the price of the front month NYMEX natural gas contract, which today is the contract for February delivery to Henry Hub, Louisiana.

Watch the daily update at https://www.weatherbell.com/premium/ and it will give you a hint of why the NYMEX contract price has drifted lower today.

The "realized price" for gas that I show at the bottom of each forecast/valuation model for the individual companies includes cash settlements on hedges and regional price differentials. For example, Antero Resources (AR) has more than 100% of its natural gas production hedged at high prices, so its realized price in 2017 ends up around $3.60/mcf. Its realized prices will end up around $3.40/mcf in 2018 no matter what NYMEX prices do this year.

Is there any logic as to why RRC isn't going up with this weather and rising NG prices?

NYMEX gas price is down and well shut-ins may impact Q1 results.

RRC is not the only gasser down in this chill. A lot of money is apparently still betting on the
unseasonable red warmth that Bastardi shows coming up as the vortex relents. UGAZ is down
2% this year, where as its bearish counterpart is up 2%.

Amid the blizzard and freezing temps, natgas has backed off to 2.90MMBtu.
https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-Gene ... rices.html

<<But, judging by Nymex prices, natural gas markets remain sanguine about the challenges ahead, despite regional problems. Front-month prices are still hovering at about $3/MMBtu, roughly where they have been for the better part of a year. In fact, the bout of cold weather may only have a limited impact on the gas markets. The supply outages will be temporary, and so will the demand spike. As temperatures rise, things will go back to normal. Moreover, most analysts see the natural gas industry continuing to ramp up production.

Natural gas prices “have exhibited a relatively tepid response” Teri Viswanath, an analyst at S&P Global Platts, told the FT. “Why? Rapid production growth that has unfolded in the second half of 2017 has limited concerns of a supply shortage this winter.”>>