U.S. Natural Gas Production - Actuals
Posted: Fri Jan 12, 2018 1:49 pm
There are a lot of wild forecasts of how high U.S. natural gas production will be going in 2018. However, the actual data does not show a big increase so far. We only have actual production data through October, 2017.
You can see for yourself at https://www.eia.gov/dnav/ng/hist/n9070us2m.htm
Actual Dry Gas Production:
October, 2015 = 2,300,017 MMCF, which is 74.194 Bcf per day
October, 2016 = 2,214,067 MMCF, which is 71.422 Bcf per day
October, 2017 = 2,328,898 MMCF, which is 75,126 Bcf per day
Mid-2016 was around the low point of D&C activity for this cycle. All we've done this year is increase production by 1 Bcfpd in two years. Note that it is easy to get production back to previous highs because the gathering and pipeline systems already exist. Going above previous highs is much harder.
I have seen predictions of natural gas production increasing by 7 Bcfpd YOY in 2018. The United States has NEVER increased gas production at that rate; not even close. The predictions seem to assume that all of the new pipelines will immediately fill to capacity. 7 Bcfpd is a hell of a lot of new well tie-ins.
There is NO DOUBT that natural gas and NGL production is going up and probably by a lot. However, so is demand.
This is just an observations and not a BULLISH outlook for natural gas prices, which is trading at $3.21/MMBtu today. < See, weather does make a difference.
You can see for yourself at https://www.eia.gov/dnav/ng/hist/n9070us2m.htm
Actual Dry Gas Production:
October, 2015 = 2,300,017 MMCF, which is 74.194 Bcf per day
October, 2016 = 2,214,067 MMCF, which is 71.422 Bcf per day
October, 2017 = 2,328,898 MMCF, which is 75,126 Bcf per day
Mid-2016 was around the low point of D&C activity for this cycle. All we've done this year is increase production by 1 Bcfpd in two years. Note that it is easy to get production back to previous highs because the gathering and pipeline systems already exist. Going above previous highs is much harder.
I have seen predictions of natural gas production increasing by 7 Bcfpd YOY in 2018. The United States has NEVER increased gas production at that rate; not even close. The predictions seem to assume that all of the new pipelines will immediately fill to capacity. 7 Bcfpd is a hell of a lot of new well tie-ins.
There is NO DOUBT that natural gas and NGL production is going up and probably by a lot. However, so is demand.
This is just an observations and not a BULLISH outlook for natural gas prices, which is trading at $3.21/MMBtu today. < See, weather does make a difference.