Natural Gas Storage Report - Jan 25
Posted: Thu Jan 25, 2018 11:21 am
Working gas in storage was 2,296 Bcf as of Friday, January 19, 2018, according to EIA estimates. This represents a net decrease of 288 Bcf from the previous week.
Stocks were 519 Bcf less than last year at this time and 486 Bcf below the five-year average of 2,782 Bcf. At 2,296 Bcf, total working gas is below the five-year historical range.
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MY TAKE:
> The draw of 288 Bcf is equal to the largest draw in history prior to 2018. The new record is a draw of 359 Bcf set two weeks ago.
> U.S. natural gas storage as of March 31st average is ~1,700. < We are now sure to be WAY BELOW the 5-year average at the end of this winter heating season.
> 5-year average draws from storage for the period January 20 to March 31 total 1,020 BCF. < My SWAG is that draws this year will be over 1,200 Bcf
We are going to end this winter heating season with storage ~600 Bcf below where it was last year. FACT: Storage must be refilled before the next winter heating season begins.
Refill season (April - October) is 214 days long. This cold winter will increase demand for gas during the refill season by 2.8 Bcf per day. < This is a HUGE increase in year-over-year demand that no one was expecting just a few months ago. Traders figuring this out is why gas prices have firmed up recently.
Stocks were 519 Bcf less than last year at this time and 486 Bcf below the five-year average of 2,782 Bcf. At 2,296 Bcf, total working gas is below the five-year historical range.
--------------------------
MY TAKE:
> The draw of 288 Bcf is equal to the largest draw in history prior to 2018. The new record is a draw of 359 Bcf set two weeks ago.
> U.S. natural gas storage as of March 31st average is ~1,700. < We are now sure to be WAY BELOW the 5-year average at the end of this winter heating season.
> 5-year average draws from storage for the period January 20 to March 31 total 1,020 BCF. < My SWAG is that draws this year will be over 1,200 Bcf
We are going to end this winter heating season with storage ~600 Bcf below where it was last year. FACT: Storage must be refilled before the next winter heating season begins.
Refill season (April - October) is 214 days long. This cold winter will increase demand for gas during the refill season by 2.8 Bcf per day. < This is a HUGE increase in year-over-year demand that no one was expecting just a few months ago. Traders figuring this out is why gas prices have firmed up recently.