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Antero Resources (AR) - Update

Posted: Tue Feb 06, 2018 10:52 am
by dan_s
For 4Q17, Antero Resources (AR) is expected to report total production of 2,347 MMcfe/d (million cubic feet equivalent per day), which represents an 18% increase year-over-year. Antero is forecasting a compound annual production growth rate of 20% over the four-year period from 2017 to 2020. This plan assumes flat $3.00/MMBtu (million British thermal units) natural gas and $54-per-barrel WTI crude oil prices.

Antero Resources’ (AR) 2018 capex (capital expenditure) is $1.45 billion. This total includes $1.3 billion for drilling and completion expenses, $25 million for leasehold maintenance expenses, and $125 million for discretionary leasehold expenditures. In a press release that followed its Analyst Day Conference on January 17, the company noted that its drilling and completion budget has remained flat for three consecutive years. About 80% of the drilling and completion budget for 2018 is being allocated to the Marcellus Shale, while the remaining 20% is allocated to the Utica Shale.

All of their 2018 natural gas production is hedged, so daily moves in the price of natural gas have very little impact on my valuation. Antero's realized natural gas price for 2017 was $3.55/MMBtu thanks to their aggressive hedging program and the fact that they produce a lot of high BTU gas, which sells at a premium.

Antero is the largest producer of NGLs. < This is why there is lots of upside to the current share price.

In the last 3 months, 12 ranked analysts set 12-month price targets for AR. The average price target among the analysts is $24.45.

Re: Antero Resources (AR) - Update

Posted: Tue Feb 06, 2018 11:04 am
by dan_s
Based on my forecast/valuation model, Antero should generate $1.7 to $1.8 Billion of cash flow from operations in 2018. This is more than enough to cover their $1.45 Billion capex budget for 2018, which is designed to generate 20% YOY production growth.

Operating cash flow per share s/b $5.50 to $5.70 in 2018. < This compares to First Calls' CFPS forecast of $5.20 for 2018 and $6.44 for 2019.

So.... does my valuation of $30.00/share for AR seem out-of-line to you?

BTW Antero's cash flow from operations was ~$6.10/share in 2017, which included ~$2.40/share of cash proceeds from derivative settlements in Q3.