Energy Prospectus

Crude Climbs as OPEC Sees Global Demand Trumping Shale's Growth:
https://www.investing.com/news/commodit ... th-1232012

As I have posted here many time, U.S. shale production CANNOT MEET GLOBAL DEMAND FOR OIL ON ITS OWN.

Bakken and Eagle Ford oil production has already peaked. The Permian Basin and SCOOP/STACK are the only two areas with lots of remaining Tier One leasehold that's undrilled. Beyond the next two years this world will need increased offshore production to meet demand. Oil must be AT LEAST $70/BBL before offshore exploration will pick up again.

We are in the lowest demand quarter for the year. Beginning in April, demand for refined productions will ramp up very quickly. It happens each year.

"To better understand the global oil balances for 2018, let us first start with 2017’s global oil market deficit of 650,000 b/d. In addition to the starting deficit, the IEA is projecting that global demand will grow by 1.3 m b/d in 2018 implying that global oil supply must grow by a minimum of 2 m b/d to keep inventories from drawing even further. And, as in past years, we think this demand figure will have to revised up significantly. As we have discussed at length in past letters, the IEA has chronically underestimated global oil demand and has revised up its figures in eight of the last nine years by 1 mm b/d each year on average. Our models tell us that 2018 will be no different." - Goehring & Rozencwajg Natural Resource Market Commentary