PBG - Petrobank
PBG - Petrobank
Why does this stock continue to underperform?
Re: PBG - Petrobank
Each share of PetroBank = 1.03 shares of PetroBakken (PBN.TO) which had some production issues in Q4. Those problems are solve now.
The difference between PBG.TO and PBN.TO is all you are paying for their heavy oil business.
IMO the heavy oil business is worth around $10/share but the market has been disappointed in delays in getting their heavy oil projects up and running. Kerrobert is now scheduled to ramp up production this summer (should be at 10,000 bopd by the end of 2012) and Dawson should be on-line by December. As these projects ramp up, I'm expecting the market to gain more confidence in PetroBank. I also think PetroBakken will show a lot of production growth from now through year-end. They both release first quarter results next week.
May Creek is the "Big One" that will ramp up next year:
Based on the success of the current Whitesands Demonstration Project, Petrobank is planning a greenfield commercial THAI® project, the May River Project, with a central processing facility two kilometres from our current site. The project will be constructed in phases with the first module (Phase-1) having the capacity to produce 10,000 to 15,000 bbl/d of partially upgraded bitumen. Expansion will continue in stages with the production capacity ultimately reaching 100,000 bbl/d. Operationally, it will also allow design improvements and new production processes to be incorporated into the project. By including our overall plan for the 100,000 bbl/day project we also expect to improve the timing of the necessary regulatory approvals for the first phase and future phases.
See my Company Profile for PetroBank dated 1-18-2011 on the website under the Sweet 16 tab. Just click on their logo.
The difference between PBG.TO and PBN.TO is all you are paying for their heavy oil business.
IMO the heavy oil business is worth around $10/share but the market has been disappointed in delays in getting their heavy oil projects up and running. Kerrobert is now scheduled to ramp up production this summer (should be at 10,000 bopd by the end of 2012) and Dawson should be on-line by December. As these projects ramp up, I'm expecting the market to gain more confidence in PetroBank. I also think PetroBakken will show a lot of production growth from now through year-end. They both release first quarter results next week.
May Creek is the "Big One" that will ramp up next year:
Based on the success of the current Whitesands Demonstration Project, Petrobank is planning a greenfield commercial THAI® project, the May River Project, with a central processing facility two kilometres from our current site. The project will be constructed in phases with the first module (Phase-1) having the capacity to produce 10,000 to 15,000 bbl/d of partially upgraded bitumen. Expansion will continue in stages with the production capacity ultimately reaching 100,000 bbl/d. Operationally, it will also allow design improvements and new production processes to be incorporated into the project. By including our overall plan for the 100,000 bbl/day project we also expect to improve the timing of the necessary regulatory approvals for the first phase and future phases.
See my Company Profile for PetroBank dated 1-18-2011 on the website under the Sweet 16 tab. Just click on their logo.
Dan Steffens
Energy Prospectus Group
Energy Prospectus Group
Re: PBG - Petrobank
Thanks for the reply. One followup - would you add to a current position at todays price? or invest new funds elsewhere in the sweet 16?
Cheers,
David
Cheers,
David
Re: PBG - Petrobank
Petrobank is in the Sweet 16 this year because (a) I am bullish on oil and (b) it should start getting a lot more credit for the heavy oil business late this year. I believe it will be a winner for us in the 4th quarter.
You should aways diversify.
Right now all of the Sweet-16 are trading below my Fair Value estimates.
MIND may have most short-term potential. I believe it will make a run into its 1st quarter results which should be coming out early in June. They are going to have a great quarter, maybe a record for the company and MIND is debt free. (MIND is on a fiscal year that ends in January, so Q1 ended 4/30.)
XEC, ROSE, PXP and CLR all look like great low-risk buys at the current price.
GTE and PMG have incredible exploration upside.
Good luck and hang tough. Oil is going to flop around for awhile but all of the trends are in place for it to move higher.
You should aways diversify.
Right now all of the Sweet-16 are trading below my Fair Value estimates.
MIND may have most short-term potential. I believe it will make a run into its 1st quarter results which should be coming out early in June. They are going to have a great quarter, maybe a record for the company and MIND is debt free. (MIND is on a fiscal year that ends in January, so Q1 ended 4/30.)
XEC, ROSE, PXP and CLR all look like great low-risk buys at the current price.
GTE and PMG have incredible exploration upside.
Good luck and hang tough. Oil is going to flop around for awhile but all of the trends are in place for it to move higher.
Dan Steffens
Energy Prospectus Group
Energy Prospectus Group
Re: PBG - Petrobank
Thank you. Your input is appreciated.
Cheers
Cheers
Re: PBG - Petrobank
My updated forecast model for PetroBakken (PBN.TO) will soon be available under the Sweet 16 tab, under the PetroBank logo.
PetroBank owns 58% of PetroBakken so I need to complete this forecast first. PetroBank has not yet released first quarter results.
Each share of PetroBank = 1.03 shares of PetroBakken + the heavy oil business
My Fair Value estimate for PBN is $34/share compared to the First Call target price of $25/share. It think several analysts will upgrade this one after they digest first quarter results. It is heavily weighted to oil and the company's production guidance is quite good. Plus. It pays a nice dividend of $0.08/month.
If you are bullish on oil, PetroBakken is a safe place to plant some money. Annual yield is now about 5.8%.
PetroBank owns 58% of PetroBakken so I need to complete this forecast first. PetroBank has not yet released first quarter results.
Each share of PetroBank = 1.03 shares of PetroBakken + the heavy oil business
My Fair Value estimate for PBN is $34/share compared to the First Call target price of $25/share. It think several analysts will upgrade this one after they digest first quarter results. It is heavily weighted to oil and the company's production guidance is quite good. Plus. It pays a nice dividend of $0.08/month.
If you are bullish on oil, PetroBakken is a safe place to plant some money. Annual yield is now about 5.8%.
Dan Steffens
Energy Prospectus Group
Energy Prospectus Group