Energy Prospectus

EOG reported Q4 results on Tuesday.

HOUSTON, Feb. 27, 2018 /PRNewswire/ --

Delivers 20 Percent U.S. Crude Oil Production Growth and Pays Dividend within Cash Flow
Lowers Per-Unit Transportation and DD&A Expenses Below Targets
Increases Proved Reserves 18 Percent and Replaces 201 Percent of 2017 Production at Low Finding Costs
Raises Common Stock Dividend 10 Percent
Targets 18 Percent Crude Oil Production Growth and 16 Percent Total Production Growth for 2018 with Significant Free Cash Flow at $60 Oil
Expects to Earn Double-Digit ROCE in 2018

EOG Resources, Inc. (EOG) (EOG) today reported fourth quarter 2017 net income of $2,430 million, or $4.20 per share. This compares to a fourth quarter 2016 net loss of $142 million, or $0.25 per share. For the full year 2017, EOG reported net income of $2,583 million, or $4.46 per share, compared to a net loss of $1,097 million, or $1.98 per share, for the full year 2016.

Adjusted non-GAAP net income for the fourth quarter 2017 was $401 million, or $0.69 per share, compared to an adjusted non-GAAP net loss of $7 million, or $0.01 per share, for the same prior year period. < This compares to my forecast EPS for Q4 of $0.58

Adjusted non-GAAP net income for the full year 2017 was $648 million, or $1.12 per share, compared to an adjusted non-GAAP net loss of $893 million, or $1.61 per share, for the full year 2016. Adjusted non-GAAP net income (loss) is calculated by matching hedge realizations to settlement months and making certain other adjustments in order to exclude non-recurring and certain other items. One of the adjusting items in the fourth quarter and full year 2017 was a non-cash reduction in income tax expense of $2.2 billion, or $3.75 per share, related to the revaluation of EOG's deferred tax liability and certain other items resulting from the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act.

2018 Capital Plan
EOG's disciplined capital plan is designed to achieve strong returns on capital employed and healthy growth while spending within cash flow. The company expects to grow total company crude oil volumes by 18 percent, generate double-digit ROCE and cover capital investment and dividend payments within discretionary cash flow. EOG can deliver on its 2018 plan at oil prices below $50 and generates significant free cash flow at a $60 oil price.

EOG's return-based culture continues to drive cost reductions. The company targets lower well costs and per-unit operating expenses in 2018 despite a potentially inflationary operating environment. EOG is also focused on driving continued improvements in well productivity and pursuing exploration efforts in new plays.

Capital expenditures for 2018 are expected to range from $5.4 to $5.8 billion, including production facilities and gathering, processing and other expenditures, and excluding acquisitions. EOG expects to complete approximately 690 net wells in 2018, compared to 536 net wells in 2017. Capital will be allocated primarily to EOG's highest rate-of-return oil assets in the Delaware Basin, Eagle Ford, Rockies, Woodford and the Bakken.

At least 90 percent of the wells completed in 2018 are expected to be premium. EOG has an inventory of approximately 8,000 such wells, which have a direct after-tax rate of return of at least 30 percent assuming $40 flat crude oil prices and $2.50 flat natural gas prices.

"EOG enters 2018 better positioned than ever to generate significant shareholder value through the development of its large and diverse inventory of high rate-of-return premium wells," Thomas said. "We are determined to maintain the discipline, record-level operational efficiency and performance gained through the downturn. Our deep inventory of premium wells across the U.S. offers flexibility to adjust to changing conditions. We also see significant opportunities to increase our premium well inventory through organic exploration and development technology to further extend EOG's return on capital advantage."

In the last 3 months, 15 ranked analysts set 12-month price targets for EOG. The average price target among the analysts is $124.07. Wall Street price targets range from $108 to $145. The $145 target is from a report published 3-1-2018.

My valuation of EOG is now $135.00/share.

My updated forecast/valuation model for EOG will be posted to the EPG website late today.