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CLR and RRC

Posted: Tue Mar 06, 2018 1:49 pm
by dan_s
We will be sending out via email updated profiles on Continental Resources (CLR) and Range Resources (RRC) on Wednesday morning, March 7. The updated CLR profile has already been posted to the EPG website.

I am working on RRC's profile now. IMO, RRC is trading at a deep discount to its "real" proven reserves.

Per their 10-K, RRC's proven reserves are 15.3 Tcfe and have a PV10 value of $8.1 Billion. SEC regulations only let them include about a 1/3 of their actual proven undeveloped locations in proved reserves (P1). For example, if RRC has one completed well on a pad in the Marcellus, SEC only lets them include one more undeveloped location in P1. Now read this:

"Range has an extensive stacked-pay acreage position in both Appalachia and North Louisiana. Range also has a network of over 200 existing well pads. These pads are designed to accommodate an average of 20 wells from any combination of the Marcellus, Utica or Upper Devonian horizons. However, most pads currently contain only 4-6 producing wells, providing Range the opportunity to drill thousands of future wells utilizing existing roads, pads and infrastructure."

My Take: RRC's real P1 reserves may be worth double what is in their 10-K, so their actual proven reserves have a PV10 over $16 Billion.

Today, RRC has market cap of ~ $3.7 Billion. It also has debt of ~ $6.0 Billion. So, the "real value" of its oil & gas assets are probably worth close to double the company's market cap + debt. This is why I think RRC is a PRIME TAKEOVER TARGET.

Re: CLR and RRC

Posted: Tue Mar 06, 2018 1:52 pm
by dan_s
CLR and RRC both expect to generate free cash flow from operations in 2018.

Re: CLR and RRC

Posted: Tue Mar 06, 2018 2:09 pm
by dan_s
RRC's realized commodity prices in 2017, including cash settlements on hedges were:
$2.90/mcf for natural gas, $49.43/bbl for crude oil and $14.85/bbl for NGLs

Here is what I am using in my forecast for 2018. Keep in mind that ~70% of forecast natural gas is hedged at an average price of ~$3.09.
$2.90/mcf for natural gas, $55.00/bbl for crude oil and $17.00/bbl for NGLs

Higher liquids prices will more than offset the $0.10/mcf lower gas price.