Natural Gas Production in the U.S. by year
Posted: Tue Mar 13, 2018 1:39 pm
Per the EIA website, based on actual production data provided by the states.
Daily Dry Natural Gas Production (Mcf per day) in the U.S.: Check for yourself here: https://www.eia.gov/dnav/ng/hist/n9070us2m.htm
2015 = 74,152,000
2016 = 72,849,000
2017 = 73,598,000
Does it surprise you that gas production was less in 2017 than it was in 2015?
Since mid-2017 natural gas production has accelerated (again based on actual reports which we only have through December)
July = 73,450,000
Aug = 73,568,000
Sep = 75,046,000
Oct = 75,187,000
Nov = 77,387,000
Dec = 78,291,000
Despite the sharp increase in production during the 4th quarter, natural gas in storage is WAY BELOW where it was last year and 300 Bcf below the 5-year average. Why? Because demand for U.S. gas is way up. More exports, more industrial demand, more demand for power generation and more demand for space heating just because we've had a slightly colder than normal winter.
We are going to end the winter heating season with 600 to 800 Bcf less gas in storage than we had at the end of the previous year. That means MORE DEMAND to refill storage than was expected just a few months ago.
We have plenty of gas. The Marcellus/Utica is one of God's Gifts to America. However, we do not yet have a "glut" of production over demand.
What could support higher gas prices?
1. Draws from storage extend into April, shortening the refill season.
2. A hot summer. This will increase demand for power generation.
3. High demand for petrochemicals. Natural gas is the primary feedstock for America's rapidly growing petrochemical industry.
I DO NOT EXPECT NATURAL GAS PRICE TO GO OVER $3.00 unless there is extreme weather related demand. However, the FEAR of gas prices falling to near $2.00 is probably not something to worry about.
I am assuming natural gas prices AVERAGE $2.75 in 2018 and 2019. Oil, gas and NGL price used for each company's forecast/valuation can be found at the bottom of each forecast model. I try to adjust for regional price differentials and for each company's hedges.
Daily Dry Natural Gas Production (Mcf per day) in the U.S.: Check for yourself here: https://www.eia.gov/dnav/ng/hist/n9070us2m.htm
2015 = 74,152,000
2016 = 72,849,000
2017 = 73,598,000
Does it surprise you that gas production was less in 2017 than it was in 2015?
Since mid-2017 natural gas production has accelerated (again based on actual reports which we only have through December)
July = 73,450,000
Aug = 73,568,000
Sep = 75,046,000
Oct = 75,187,000
Nov = 77,387,000
Dec = 78,291,000
Despite the sharp increase in production during the 4th quarter, natural gas in storage is WAY BELOW where it was last year and 300 Bcf below the 5-year average. Why? Because demand for U.S. gas is way up. More exports, more industrial demand, more demand for power generation and more demand for space heating just because we've had a slightly colder than normal winter.
We are going to end the winter heating season with 600 to 800 Bcf less gas in storage than we had at the end of the previous year. That means MORE DEMAND to refill storage than was expected just a few months ago.
We have plenty of gas. The Marcellus/Utica is one of God's Gifts to America. However, we do not yet have a "glut" of production over demand.
What could support higher gas prices?
1. Draws from storage extend into April, shortening the refill season.
2. A hot summer. This will increase demand for power generation.
3. High demand for petrochemicals. Natural gas is the primary feedstock for America's rapidly growing petrochemical industry.
I DO NOT EXPECT NATURAL GAS PRICE TO GO OVER $3.00 unless there is extreme weather related demand. However, the FEAR of gas prices falling to near $2.00 is probably not something to worry about.
I am assuming natural gas prices AVERAGE $2.75 in 2018 and 2019. Oil, gas and NGL price used for each company's forecast/valuation can be found at the bottom of each forecast model. I try to adjust for regional price differentials and for each company's hedges.