Energy Prospectus

Trump ousts Tillerson, puts Pompeo at State.

President Trump’s decision to fire Sec. of State Rex Tillerson and replace him with current CIA Director Mike Pompeo caught the world (and Rex Tillerson) by surprise. The move is significant because Trump specifically cited his disagreement with Tillerson over the Iran nuclear deal as a key reason in the former Exxon CEO’s ouster. Replacing him with Mike Pompeo does not bode well for the nuclear deal, as Pompeo is a notorious hawk vis-à-vis Iran. The move increases the odds of confrontation between the U.S. and Iran, although Pompeo still needs to be confirmed by the Senate.

MY TAKE: If Trump rips up the "Iranian Nuke Deal", oil prices will spike.

I had assigned an 80% possibility that Trump would not renew the Iran deal. Conventional wisdom is that oil will spike. But, I am not so sure now. Taken together with the tariffs, the issue of a global slowdown gets more possible. Therefor, may see a situation where oil rises some but oil equities sell off with the broader market.