Energy Prospectus

Working gas in storage was 1,532 Bcf as of Friday, March 9, 2018, according to EIA estimates. This represents a net decrease of 93 Bcf from the previous week. Stocks were 718 Bcf less than last year at this time and 296 Bcf below the five-year average of 1,828 Bcf. At 1,532 Bcf, total working gas is within the five-year historical range.

The 5-year average storage level at March 31st is 1,704 Bcf.

On March 31, 2017 storage level was 2,051 Bcf.

Let's say we end this heating season with 1,400 Bcf in storage ( my SWAG is that draws will continue into April and we end up below 1,300 Bcf). If so, that means we end up with storage 650 Bcf below where it was last year. With 214 days in refill season (April 1 to Oct 31), that adds slightly over 3 Bcf per day more demand over the next seven months. 3 Bcfpd is a lot of gas.

BTW a 4th "Noreaster" winter storm is heading to New England and will arrive in five days.

EIA keeps telling us that we have a big supply surge of natural gas, but over the last ten weeks the U.S. natural gas storage level has declined 133 Bcf more than the 5-year average. The first half of January was cold, but since then the winter has been close to average.

So, where is all of the increased gas supply going?

Based on the weather this week and the forecast for the rest of March, draws from storage should be ~100 Bcf above the 5-year average for the last three weeks of winter (combined).