Wild Weather in 2nd half of March
Posted: Sat Mar 17, 2018 10:25 am
Watch the Saturday Summary at https://www.weatherbell.com/premium/
A wild finish to winter in the eastern 2/3s of the U.S. should produce at least three more draws from natural gas storage that will be much larger than the 5-year average draws. A 100 Bcf draw for the week ending March 16, 2018 would be double the 5-year average for that week.
Natural gas storage of 1,532 Bcf on March 9 should move very close to my forecast of 1,300 Bcf on March 31st. That would put winter heating season ending storage 400 Bcf below the 5-year average and 700 Bcf below 3-31-2017. < Adding over 3 Bcfpd of additional demand that we did not have last summer.
If winter weather hangs around in the Great Lakes Region into April (causing even small draws from storage) it will shorten the refill season (April 1 to Oct 31). That will make it almost impossible for gas storage to get back to the 5-year average by the end of June and before demand for power generation really picks up with summer heat in July and August. < We now have two "peak demand" periods for gas because so many coal fired power plants have been replaced by gas fired power plants.
Refilling storage before the next winter heating season is absolutely required, so this could turn into a significant story of the "gassers" if we don't see storage levels increasing more than normal in the 2nd quarter.
BTW the weather pattern is also very bullish for propane demand and NGL prices.
A wild finish to winter in the eastern 2/3s of the U.S. should produce at least three more draws from natural gas storage that will be much larger than the 5-year average draws. A 100 Bcf draw for the week ending March 16, 2018 would be double the 5-year average for that week.
Natural gas storage of 1,532 Bcf on March 9 should move very close to my forecast of 1,300 Bcf on March 31st. That would put winter heating season ending storage 400 Bcf below the 5-year average and 700 Bcf below 3-31-2017. < Adding over 3 Bcfpd of additional demand that we did not have last summer.
If winter weather hangs around in the Great Lakes Region into April (causing even small draws from storage) it will shorten the refill season (April 1 to Oct 31). That will make it almost impossible for gas storage to get back to the 5-year average by the end of June and before demand for power generation really picks up with summer heat in July and August. < We now have two "peak demand" periods for gas because so many coal fired power plants have been replaced by gas fired power plants.
Refilling storage before the next winter heating season is absolutely required, so this could turn into a significant story of the "gassers" if we don't see storage levels increasing more than normal in the 2nd quarter.
BTW the weather pattern is also very bullish for propane demand and NGL prices.