Energy Prospectus

The U.S. Energy Information Administration said in its weekly report that crude oil inventories declined by 2.6 million barrels in the week ended March 16. This is in line to the American Petroleum Institute late Tuesday report of a supply-drop of 2.7 million barrels.

The drop in crude oil compares with analysts' expectations for a gain of around 2.6 million barrels

Supplies at Cushing, Oklahoma, the key delivery point for Nymex crude, rose by 905,000 barrels last week, the EIA said.

Total U.S. crude oil inventories stood at 428.3 million barrels as of last week, which the EIA considered to be in the lower half of the average range for this time of year.

The report also showed that gasoline inventories decreased by 1.7 million barrels, compared to expectations for a decline of 2.0 million barrels.
For distillate inventories including diesel, the EIA reported a drop of 2.0 million barrels.
---------------------------
U.S. Refineries are now coming out of annual maintenance. Transportation fuel inventories (gasoline, diesel and jet fuel) are all too low; way below 30 days of supply. U.S. refiners will ramp up to more than 95% of capacity in April and U.S. crude oil inventories will plunge in the 2nd quarter. U.S. oil production is up, but so are exports of crude oil since our refineries need heavier oil. If Trump rips up the Obama "Give Iran a Nuke Deal", then WTI will quickly move over $70/bbl. Technically, a close over $67/bbl sets up a move to $75/bbl by year-end. Trump's meeting with Saudi Arabia this week is a big deal.

This is why crude oil inventories declined and why they should keep falling:
"U.S. refinery throughput accelerated by +410,000 b/d to a seasonal record 16.8 million b/d"

In April, I expect refinery throughput to grow to 17.5 million barrels per day.

Key refined product inventories.

As of 3/16/2018
Crude oil at 26.4 days of supply (down 0.5 for the week)
Gasoline at 26.2 days of supply (down 0.4 for the week)
Jet Fuel at 23.8 days of supply (up 0.5 for the week)
Distillates at 33.6 days of supply (up 0.1 for the week) < Diesel and heating oil
Propane at 26.9 days of supply (up 0.5 for the week)

The U.S. economy is VERY DEPENDENT on a steady supply of these products, so 30 days of supply is where we should be. A big spike in demand for transportation fuels is just weeks away.

You can find details of EIA's weekly report here: https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/pet_sum_sn ... _nus_w.htm