Energy Prospectus

Working gas in storage was 1,354 Bcf as of Friday, March 30, 2018, according to EIA estimates. This represents a net decrease of 29 Bcf from the previous week.
Stocks were 697 Bcf less than last year at this time and 347 Bcf below the five-year average of 1,701 Bcf. At 1,354 Bcf, total working gas is within the five-year historical range.

The next two storage reports will compare to builds last year of 10 Bcf and 54 Bcf, so I think it is a good bet that natural gas in storage will be more than 750 Bcf lower than last year when we get to mid-April. My SWAG is that next weeks storage report (for the week ending April 6) will show a draw of 30 to 40 Bcf.

There are ~200 days in the refill season, so demand for gas will increase by 3.75 Bcfpd this summer just to refill storage before the next winter heating season begins.

Looks like winter will hang around for two more weeks in the NE quarter of the U.S. See Daily Updates at: https://www.weatherbell.com/premium/

The big cities in states around the Great Lakes burn the most natural gas for space heating. New England area still uses a lot of oil for heating.

In Joe Bastardi's weather update on Friday, April 6 he shows several more cold waves across the NE quarter of the U.S. through April.
Focus primarily on the Great Lakes Regions because it is the area that burns the most gas for space heating.

We don't need big draws from natural gas storage for this to be bullish for natural gas (and for NGLs) because storage normally begins to build in April. Even if draws go to zero, it will be bullish for natural gas supply/demand because it will keep storage way below where it was a year ago. Keep in mind that the U.S. natural gas market is MUCH LARGER than it was five years ago, so comparisons to the 5-year average don't mean much.

EIA keeps telling us that a big surge in gas supply is just ahead, however it is not showing up at all in the weekly storage reports. Gas production is up, but so is demand and not just demand for space heating. Industrial demand and exports are also up and increasing rapidly.

If summer heat shows up early (increasing demand for power generation) and injections to storage remain lower than normal through June, it should have an impact on the gas price. It will because the utilities start to worry about having enough in storage to meet the next winter's demand. They will start bidding against each other for supply. At least this is what should happen in a "normal world".