Energy Prospectus

Working gas in storage was 1,432 Bcf as of Friday, May 4, 2018, according to EIA estimates. This represents a net increase of 89 Bcf from the previous week.
Stocks were 863 Bcf less than last year at this time and 520 Bcf below the five-year average of 1,952 Bcf.
At 1,432 Bcf, total working gas is within the five-year historical range. < In the lower quarter of the 5-year range.

We are now in the "Shoulder Season" when ngas inventory needs to build. Summer heat will increase demand starting in June and peaking in July/August.

Colder than normal winter weather during April has shortened the refill season, making it almost impossible to get storage back to where it was a year ago by November 1st; the beginning of the next winter heating season.

To see the 5-year average builds for future weeks, go here: http://www.americanoilman.com/ and click on Gas Storage

Storage builds peak the last week of May and then go on decline as summer heat spreads across the South. We love our air conditioning down here.

TPH comments about natural gas on 5-11-2018:

"89bcf injection in-line with expectations (90bcf). Market was >2.0bcf oversupplied on a weather-adjusted basis. With US production ~flat w/w, LNG exports down ~0.4bcfd, and Mexican exports inert at ~4.4bcfd, domestic demand remains strong. Initial estimates are predicting more CDD than HDD....Indicating that more demand is on the horizon. All-in, the supply deficit is proving to be more resilient than initially expected."

The Wall Street Herd's consensus opinion is that there is a HUGE surplus of natural gas in this country. I don't blame them for that view because EIA keeps telling us there is a massive surge in supply just around the corner. However, looking backward over the last 52 weeks, it is quite clear that demand has exceeded supply by over 2 Bcf per day. To clarify that statement, the delta to the 5-year movement of gas in and out of storage has been a negative 830 Bcf over the last 52 weeks.

Over the next five weeks, the average weekly storage build is 94 Bcf.

To get storage back to where it was at the beginning of the last winter, weekly builds must be 31 Bcf higher EACH WEEK. The chance of that happening are "slim and none".

This is why I keep saying that a HOT SUMMER in Texas and The South should draw a lot more attention to the BIG YOY difference in the natural gas storage level.