Energy Prospectus

Per EIA:
U.S. crude oil inventories fell by nearly 10 million barrels last week as refineries hiked output, while gasoline and distillate inventories rose, the Energy Information Administration said on Wednesday.

Crude inventories fell by 9.9 million barrels in the last week, compared with analysts' expectations for a decrease of 2.6 million barrels.

Crude stocks at the Cushing, Oklahoma, delivery hub fell by 2.7 million barrels, EIA said. < I have seen comments that some of the Wall Street Gang is predicting that Cushing will "fill up" this year and that is why WTI sells at a big discount. That is just more "hogwash". Cushing inventories are much lower today than they were a year ago.

Refinery crude runs rose by 115,000 barrels per day, EIA data showed. Refinery utilization rates rose by 0.8 percentage points. < Refineries are running at a VERY HIGH utilization rate because demand for transportation fuels is high and going higher next week for sure. Diesel inventories are "dangerously low".

Gasoline stocks rose by 1.2 million barrels, compared with analyst expectations in a Reuters poll for a 1.3 million-barrel gain.

Distillate stockpiles, which include diesel and heating oil, were up by 15,000 barrels, versus expectations for a 774,000-barrel increase, the EIA data showed.

Net U.S. crude imports fell last week by 512,000 barrels per day.

EIA Press Release:
Summary of Weekly Petroleum Data for the week ending June 22, 2018

U.S. crude oil refinery inputs averaged 17.8 million barrels per day during the week ending June 22, 2018, which was 115,000 barrels per day more than the previous week’s average. Refineries operated at 97.5% of their operable capacity last week. Gasoline production increased last week, averaging 10.1 million barrels per day. Distillate fuel production decreased last week, averaging 5.4 million barrels per day.

U.S. crude oil imports averaged 8.4 million barrels per day last week, up by 114,000 barrels per day from the previous week. Over the past four weeks, crude oil imports averaged about 8.3 million barrels per day, 2.4% more than the same four-week period last year. Total motor gasoline imports (including both finished gasoline and gasoline blending components) last week averaged 988,000 barrels per day, and distillate fuel imports averaged 54,000 barrels per day. < Most people don't know that we import over a million barrels per day of refined products, primarily for the East Coast market.

U.S. commercial crude oil inventories (excluding those in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve) decreased by 9.9 million barrels from the previous week. At 416.6 million barrels, U.S. crude oil inventories are about 4% below the five year average for this time of year.

Total motor gasoline inventories increased by 1.2 million barrels last week and are about 6% above the five year range. Finished gasoline inventories decreased while blending components inventories increased last week.

Distillate fuel inventories remained unchanged last week and are about 14% below the five year average for this time of year.

Propane/propylene inventories increased by 4.3 million barrels last week and are about 12% below the five year average for this time of year. Total commercial petroleum inventories decreased by 4.6 million barrels last week.

Total products supplied over the last four-week period averaged 20.2 million barrels per day, up by 1.5% from the same period last year. Over the past four weeks, motor gasoline product supplied averaged 9.5 million barrels per day, down by 0.1% from the same period last year. Distillate fuel product supplied averaged 3.8 million barrels per day over the past four weeks, down by 2.5% from the same period last year. Jet fuel product supplied was down 3.7% compared with the same four-week period last year.

Details from EIA: https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/pet_sum_sn ... _nus_w.htm

Note that U.S. oil production has been flat for three weeks. Of course, what EIA reports for production is the most "Wild Ass Guess" in this weekly report.

U.S. crude oil inventories days of supply declined by 0.8 days to 23.7 days. A dip below 20 days of supply would be quite dangerous for our economy.

U.S. refinery utilization rate at 97.5% of design capacity is the highest percentage since 2001.
Refinery crude oil inputs of 17,816,000 barrels per day is the highest EVER in the history of the world.