Energy Prospectus

Any thoughts on their recent production and pricing update?

Gulfport’s net daily production for the second quarter of 2018 averaged approximately 1,330.3 MMcfe per day. For the second quarter of 2018, Gulfport’s net daily production mix was comprised of approximately 89% natural gas, 7% NGL and 4% oil. < This compares to my forecast of 1,302.0 MMcfe for Q2 and my forecast mix was 88% natural gas, 8% NGLs and 4% oil.

Realized commodity prices including the cash settlements on their hedges were as follows, with my forecasts in ( ).
Natural gas = $2.32 ($2.50)
Crude oil = $55.29 ($58.00)
NGLs = $26.88 ($28.00)

I have updated my forecast/valuation model for GPOR and it will be posted to the EPG website later today. Focus on the RED BOX

It looks like Gulfport's Q2 "Adjusted Earnings per share" (the number comparable to the First Call EPS target) should be approximately $0.29/share, assuming they book Income Tax Expenses in the quarter. They didn't book income tax expense in Q1.

"Reported Earnings per share" (based on GAAP) will include a large mark-to-market adjustment on their hedges and s/b higher.

More important than EPS are:
> They beat Q2 production guidance and my guess is that they will raise their full year production guidance.
> Q2 Operating Cash Flow Per Shale s/b approximately $1.08, which compares to the First Call CFPS estimate of $1.06 for the quarter. GPOR is on-track for 2018 CFPS of $4.75 to $5.00.
> My full-year forecast for cash flow from operations of $838 million exceeds the high end of their full-year CapEx Budget

My valuation of GPOR remains at $28.00/share.

Question: What multiple of CFPS should be used to value a company that has more than 20% YOY production growth locked in, generates free cash flow from operations and has lots of high quality drilling inventory?

I just checked Reuters and the two most current analysts' reports used to value GPOR (dated 7/9 and 7/16) rate it a BUY with $16.00 price targets.