Natural Gas Storage Report - July 19
Posted: Thu Jul 19, 2018 12:49 pm
Working gas in storage was 2,249 Bcf as of Friday, July 13, 2018, according to EIA estimates. This represents a net increase of 46 Bcf from the previous week. Stocks were 710 Bcf less than last year at this time and 535 Bcf below the five-year average of 2,784 Bcf. At 2,249 Bcf, total working gas is within the five-year historical range (at the very bottom of the five year range).
1. Build of 46 Bcf was 14 Bcf lower than my guess.
2. Delta to the 5-year average continues to get larger.
3. We are down to 17 weeks before the next winter heating season begins. So... weekly builds must average 31.5 Bcf more than the 5-yr average to get back to it by mid-November.
4. Since mid-April (11 weeks) the delta to the 5-year average is -11 BCF < Shortage is getting WORSE.
5. There is now less than a 1% chance that we get back to the 5-year average by mid-November.
I do think we will see weekly storage builds higher than the 5-year average over the next 3 to 4 weeks, but I thought we would see one in this report as well. Even with milder than normal in the eastern half of the country, it still looks like we are going to arrive at August 31st (seven weeks from the report above) with storage approximately 450 Bcf below the 5-year average. I cannot imagine that this will not draw the attention of the utility companies. I know we have a lot more gas supply, but demand is sucking up every bit of it. The difference in the storage level compared to last year (-710 Bcf) clear tells us how much demand has increased.
It has been hot as hell in Texas and Louisiana and on the West Coast. These are areas with 100s of gas fired power plants and we like our AC in Texas.
The market never pays much attention to the "gassers" until after Labor Day.
1. Build of 46 Bcf was 14 Bcf lower than my guess.
2. Delta to the 5-year average continues to get larger.
3. We are down to 17 weeks before the next winter heating season begins. So... weekly builds must average 31.5 Bcf more than the 5-yr average to get back to it by mid-November.
4. Since mid-April (11 weeks) the delta to the 5-year average is -11 BCF < Shortage is getting WORSE.
5. There is now less than a 1% chance that we get back to the 5-year average by mid-November.
I do think we will see weekly storage builds higher than the 5-year average over the next 3 to 4 weeks, but I thought we would see one in this report as well. Even with milder than normal in the eastern half of the country, it still looks like we are going to arrive at August 31st (seven weeks from the report above) with storage approximately 450 Bcf below the 5-year average. I cannot imagine that this will not draw the attention of the utility companies. I know we have a lot more gas supply, but demand is sucking up every bit of it. The difference in the storage level compared to last year (-710 Bcf) clear tells us how much demand has increased.
It has been hot as hell in Texas and Louisiana and on the West Coast. These are areas with 100s of gas fired power plants and we like our AC in Texas.
The market never pays much attention to the "gassers" until after Labor Day.