PetroBank
Posted: Thu Jun 09, 2011 6:12 pm
I got an e-mail from one of our members today asking about PetroBank. Here is my response. If you own Petrobank I strongly suggest you go to their website and see their May 24 presentation. - Dan
What should make PetroBank go up during the second half of this year?
1. Good results by PetroBakken (59% owned by PetroBank)
2nd quarter results will be just OK with production down from 41,562 boepd in Q1 to ~39,000 boepd due to weather issues causing a delay in getting some wells completed and some wells shut-in waiting on facilities to be completed. Higher realized oil prices and some improvement in natural gas prices should offset the decline in produced volumes.
3rd and 4th quarter production will be up sharply to 43,400 boepd and 46,000 boepd. The Bakken and Cardium areas are drying out so the company will catch up on well completions by end of Q3.
On May 24 the company confirmed their guidance of a 46,000 to 49,000 boepd exit rate at December 31, 2011
2. Progress on the first PetroBank Heavy Oil THAI project call "Kerrobert".
See slides 28 & 29 on their May 24 presentation, which you can find on the PetroBank website
First "official" Kerrobert production was May 16
All ten horizontal production wells should be on-line by the end of July
This project is expected to ramp up to 7,000 BOPD within 18 months
3. Dawson is the next THAI project.
First two horizontal production wells will be drilled in July
Heavy oil production is expect to start in December, 2011
This project will ramp up to facility capacity of 10,000 BOPD
Plans are to expand the production facilities to 20,000 BOPD in 2013
Conclusion: If oil prices hold up and Kerrobert production starts ramping up, this stock should take off in the 3rd quarter.
What should make PetroBank go up during the second half of this year?
1. Good results by PetroBakken (59% owned by PetroBank)
2nd quarter results will be just OK with production down from 41,562 boepd in Q1 to ~39,000 boepd due to weather issues causing a delay in getting some wells completed and some wells shut-in waiting on facilities to be completed. Higher realized oil prices and some improvement in natural gas prices should offset the decline in produced volumes.
3rd and 4th quarter production will be up sharply to 43,400 boepd and 46,000 boepd. The Bakken and Cardium areas are drying out so the company will catch up on well completions by end of Q3.
On May 24 the company confirmed their guidance of a 46,000 to 49,000 boepd exit rate at December 31, 2011
2. Progress on the first PetroBank Heavy Oil THAI project call "Kerrobert".
See slides 28 & 29 on their May 24 presentation, which you can find on the PetroBank website
First "official" Kerrobert production was May 16
All ten horizontal production wells should be on-line by the end of July
This project is expected to ramp up to 7,000 BOPD within 18 months
3. Dawson is the next THAI project.
First two horizontal production wells will be drilled in July
Heavy oil production is expect to start in December, 2011
This project will ramp up to facility capacity of 10,000 BOPD
Plans are to expand the production facilities to 20,000 BOPD in 2013
Conclusion: If oil prices hold up and Kerrobert production starts ramping up, this stock should take off in the 3rd quarter.