Energy Prospectus

I spent over six hours on Saturday working on the Watch List and then on former Sweet 16 member Kodiak Oil & Gas (KOG).

You should all take a hard look at those spreadsheets. I think some good ideas will jump out at you.

I was expecting this. My forecast (posted Sunday) assumes full year average production will be 4,537 boepd with an exit rate around 9,000 boepd.

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- Kodiak Oil & Gas (KOG) - the Denver company said a cold and snowy winter caused it to lower its production target in the Williston Basin of Montana and North Dakota to a range of 4,500 to 5,000 barrels of oil equivalent a day, from its earlier estimate of 5,500 to 6,500 barrels of oil equivalent a day. Kodiak still expects to reach a production rate of 9,000 barrels a day by the end of the year, "despite the inclement weather, road closures, flooding and other impediments" that it has faced in the first half of 2011.

We can expect similiar delays from our other Bakken players. The good news is that completions and production will really pick up in the 3rd quarter.

The ultimate impact on Kodiak's second quarter 2011 production is not yet fully known. However, despite the difficult weather conditions, Kodiak estimates that its second quarter 2011 sales volumes should represent an approximate 35% increase over the Company's first quarter 2011 sales volumes.