RBC analyst Helima Croft discusses effect of Iran sanctions
Posted: Tue Aug 21, 2018 2:13 pm
Thanks for posting. You all need to listen to the short interview with Helima Croft, she is an expert on the global oil market.
MY TAKE:
> 11 million bbl release from SPR is like pissing on a forest fire. Remember, this world will be consuming over 100 million bbls per day in Q4.
> A large drop in Iranian exports (over 1 million bbls per day or more) is coming in November.
> U.S. shale production cannot fill the gap
> OPEC is very little remaining production capacity
> WTI goes to mid-$70s and Brent to mid-$80's based on the fundamentals
> If Iran does something crazy (restarts nuclear enrichment, closees Strait of Hormuz, etc.) the price of oil goes to triple digits in Q1 2019.