Energy Prospectus

Working gas in storage was 2,505 Bcf as of Friday, August 24, 2018, according to EIA estimates. This represents a net increase of 70 Bcf from the previous week.
Stocks were 646 Bcf less than last year at this time and 588 Bcf below the five-year average of 3,093 Bcf. At 2,505 Bcf, total working gas is below the five-year historical range.

Amount of gas in storage is now at the lowest level in more than 8 years for this time of year.

There are only 11 weeks remaining before the winter heating season (draws from storage begin).

617 Bcf = Amount of gas added to storage over the last 11 weeks of the refill season in 2017
733 Bcf = 5-year average amount of gas added to storage over the last 11 weeks of the refill season.

2505 + 733 = 3,238 Bcf <<<<< So... My SWAG is that gas in storage will be 3,200 to 3,300 Bcf when the winter heating season arrives.

5 Year average draws from U.S. storage over the last six week of the year is 502 Bcf.

The last time U.S. natural gas in storage was below 3,000 Bcf on December 31st was 12/31/2013. In January, 2014 the front month NYMEX futures contract spiked to $5.43/MMBtu and natural gas average over $4.00 for the entire year of 2014. Check for yourself here: https://www.macrotrends.net/2478/natura ... ical-chart

If we have a cold December in the eastern half of the U.S this year, it is going to get VERY INTERESTING.

Comments below are from the TPH Morning Notes 8-31-2018

Natural gas inventories built 70bcf, 8bcf more than expectations and 11bcf above 5-yr norms (59bcf). Inventories sit at a ~19% deficit to 5-yr norms and remain below the 5-yr mins. Weather-adjusted, the market was <1.0bcfd oversupplied despite US production being flat w/w. Flat production appears misleading as the ~500mmcfd w/w increase to NE production was offset by (transient) losses in Texas / the Southeast. We expect production to shift higher in the coming weeks as these losses reverse. Incremental color from Cheniere regarding Sabine Pass #5 & Corpus Christi #1 reaffirmed 1st LNG in Q4'18, but also indicated limited cargoes through YE, confirming suspicions that demand tailwinds are likely not felt until Q1'19.