InPlay Oil (IPOOF) Update - Aug 31
Posted: Fri Aug 31, 2018 12:57 pm
We will be sending out an updated profile on InPlay late today. I was slightly disappointed in the small decline in their production from Q1 to Q2, but now that I know why it happened my valuations goes back to $4.25Cdn per share. In fact, my valuation will go higher if they hit my Q3 production estimate and if capex is now being funded entirely by cash flow from operations.
Q2 production was down because of 3rd party processing facility issues, which have been resolved and a few wells had to be shut in for several days because of offset well completions. Plus, the weather in Alberta is always crappy in Q2. I now expect InPlay's full year production to be at the high end of their guidance (4,500 to 4,600 Boepd) and I expect them to end 2018 with an exit rate over 5,100 Boepd. This compares to Q2 production of 4,396 Boepd.
The "Big News" will be the initial production rates on their Duverney shale well in the Huxley area. The Duverney Shale is the "Permian Basin of Canada".
See how big the Duverney is here: https://www.shaleexperts.com/plays/duve ... rview?menu
From InPlay's Q2 Report:
"InPlay’s first Huxley Duvernay well was completed and equipped in the quarter with initial flow back production starting in June and currently in the cleanup phase. Additional acreage was acquired by InPlay at the Crown land sale in the quarter for $1.4 million, resulting in the addition of 12 sections (7,680 acres) to the company’s core Huxley area and current Duvernay land holdings. This added contiguous acreage to the company’s existing land position and increases their holdings in the area by 33 percent to 48.25 sections (30,880 acres)."
This is a sizeable acreage position for a company of this size. They have room for up to 300 extended reach horizontal wells (7,500 to 10,000 ft laterals) within their blocks. Estimated Ultimate Recoveries are 250,000 to 400,000 barrels of oil per well. Estimated completed well costs are approximately $5Cdn million. Light oil is selling for over $80Cdn per barrel these days in Alberta. BTW the royalty is only 5% on Crown Lands in Alberta, so NRIs are much higher up there. A 300,000 BO well should net the company approximately $20Cdn million over its life and these wells come on strong and should payout in about 1.5 years.
Doug Bartole has a solid team and their plan is to prove up a lot of recoverable reserves (all out of cash flow from their low-risk Cardium play) and sell the company in ~3 years.
Read the profile and spend some time on their website. I think you will see why I added it to our Small-Cap Growth Portfolio.
Q2 production was down because of 3rd party processing facility issues, which have been resolved and a few wells had to be shut in for several days because of offset well completions. Plus, the weather in Alberta is always crappy in Q2. I now expect InPlay's full year production to be at the high end of their guidance (4,500 to 4,600 Boepd) and I expect them to end 2018 with an exit rate over 5,100 Boepd. This compares to Q2 production of 4,396 Boepd.
The "Big News" will be the initial production rates on their Duverney shale well in the Huxley area. The Duverney Shale is the "Permian Basin of Canada".
See how big the Duverney is here: https://www.shaleexperts.com/plays/duve ... rview?menu
From InPlay's Q2 Report:
"InPlay’s first Huxley Duvernay well was completed and equipped in the quarter with initial flow back production starting in June and currently in the cleanup phase. Additional acreage was acquired by InPlay at the Crown land sale in the quarter for $1.4 million, resulting in the addition of 12 sections (7,680 acres) to the company’s core Huxley area and current Duvernay land holdings. This added contiguous acreage to the company’s existing land position and increases their holdings in the area by 33 percent to 48.25 sections (30,880 acres)."
This is a sizeable acreage position for a company of this size. They have room for up to 300 extended reach horizontal wells (7,500 to 10,000 ft laterals) within their blocks. Estimated Ultimate Recoveries are 250,000 to 400,000 barrels of oil per well. Estimated completed well costs are approximately $5Cdn million. Light oil is selling for over $80Cdn per barrel these days in Alberta. BTW the royalty is only 5% on Crown Lands in Alberta, so NRIs are much higher up there. A 300,000 BO well should net the company approximately $20Cdn million over its life and these wells come on strong and should payout in about 1.5 years.
Doug Bartole has a solid team and their plan is to prove up a lot of recoverable reserves (all out of cash flow from their low-risk Cardium play) and sell the company in ~3 years.
Read the profile and spend some time on their website. I think you will see why I added it to our Small-Cap Growth Portfolio.