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EIA: Weekly Oil Report - Sept 12

Posted: Wed Sep 12, 2018 10:15 am
by dan_s
Summary of Weekly Petroleum Data for the week ending September 7, 2018 (my comments are in blue).

U.S. crude oil refinery inputs averaged 17.9 million barrels per day during the week ending September 7, 2018, which was 210,000 barrels per day more than the previous week’s average. Refineries operated at 97.6% of their operable capacity last week. Gasoline production increased last week, averaging 10.4 million barrels per day. Distillate fuel production increased last week, averaging 5.5 million barrels per day. < The refinery utilization rate remains VERY HIGH because demand for refined products remains quite high. Inventories of distillates, primarily diesel and heating oil, are too low for this time of year.

U.S. crude oil imports averaged 7.6 million barrels per day last week, down by 123,000 barrels per day from the previous week. Over the past four weeks, crude oil imports averaged about 7.6 million barrels per day, 0.2% more than the same four-week period last year. Total motor gasoline imports (including both finished gasoline and gasoline blending components) last week averaged 1,053,000 barrels per day, and distillate fuel imports averaged 50,000 barrels per day.

U.S. commercial crude oil inventories (excluding those in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve) decreased by 5.3 million barrels from the previous week. At 396.2 million barrels, U.S. crude oil inventories are about 3% below the five year average for this time of year. < On days of supply, U.S. crude oil supply is in the lowest quartile on a five year average.
> Total motor gasoline inventories increased by 1.3 million barrels last week and are about 8% above the five year average for this time of year. Finished gasoline inventories increased while blending components inventories decreased last week. < Gasoline inventories are under 25 days of supply, which is low.
> Distillate fuel inventories increased by 6.2 million barrels last week and are about 3% below the five year average for this time of year.
> Propane/propylene inventories increased by 1.2 million barrels last week and are about 11% below the five year average for this time of year.
> Total commercial petroleum inventories increased last week by 10.1 million barrels last week. < This sounds bearish, but our liquid inventories are under 25 days of supply, "normal" is 30 days of supply.

Total products supplied over the last four-week period averaged 21.5 million barrels per day, up by 5.1% from the same period last year. < This is VERY HIGH because refiners never really caught up after Hurricane Harvey. Lots of countries in the Western hemisphere are very dependent on refined products from the U.S., especially in South America.

Over the past four weeks, motor gasoline product supplied averaged 9.7 million barrels per day, up by 1.2% from the same period last year. Distillate fuel product supplied averaged 4.0 million barrels per day over the past four weeks, down by 0.2% from the same period last year. Jet fuel product supplied was up 5.9% compared with the same four-week period last year.

Re: EIA: Weekly Oil Report - Sept 12

Posted: Wed Sep 12, 2018 11:26 am
by dan_s
From John Kemp at Reuters:

U.S. PETROLEUM SITUATION dominated by two developments last week
1.U.S. refiners continued running flat out, even after the end of the normal driving season, to maximise production of distillate fuel oil
2.U.S. refinery runs as well as product stocks distorted by comparisons with 2017 when Hurricane Harvey knocked out the Gulf Coast refining centres

The basic conclusion: U.S. refiners are running flat out longer than normal this year to rebuild depleted distillate stocks, but that is drawing down crude stocks heavily and leaving a surplus of gasoline

Outlook: once distillate stocks are rebuilt, the excess of gasoline implies refinery runs will have to be cut harder than normal to work off the glut of motor fuel, which will also cut crude demand < BIG INCREASE in gasoline consumption as people fleet Hurricane Florence will wipe up the "surplus" of gasoline. John is in London, so may not be aware of this. - Dan.

The main developments of note last week
•Distillate stocks surged +6.2 million bbl
•Distillate deficit is rapidly disappearing
•Distillate stocks now close to seasonal average < Not when you take into consideration how much goes to South America.
•Distillate output accelerated to seasonal record
•Refinery runs accelerate to seasonal record
•Gasoline stocks climbed to seasonal record
•Gasoline stocks now well above normal for Sep
•Gasoline stocks are up since start of year for first time since 2010
•Gasoline stocks are rising as co-produce of all that distillate output
•U.S. commercial crude stocks fell -5.3 million bbl
•Crude stocks are lowest since Feb 2015
•Crude stocks are lowest seasonally since 2014
•Crude stocks have fallen -27 million bbl since start of year
•Crude stocks show largest seasonal draw fror more than a decade

John Kemp
Senior Market Analyst
Reuters