YTD

[dan_s]

As of June 17: Our Sweet 16 Growth Portfolio is now down 3.11% YTD. This despite strong first quarter results and what should be even better 2nd quarter earnings and cash flows.

Small-caps doing the best:
YTD
MIND is up 23.1%
FXEN is up 21.0%
GPOR is up 13.7% < Going to report very strong 2nd quarter results

Canadian based companies getting hammered. All of these are heavily weighted to oil production, so it is rather strange they would be down so much with oil up over $20/bbl since the beginning of the year.
YTD
> PetroBank (PBEGF) is down 37.1% < Look for progress on their first commercial THAI project to get this one going
> Gran Tierra (GTE) is down 19.9% since being added to the S-16. < They will be reporting ~3,000 bopd increase in production for the 2nd quarter.
> Petrominerales (PMGLF) is down 16.0% < I'm expecting significant production growth this year. IMO the results of the elections in Peru caused both GTE and PMG to sell off. Neither company has significant production in Peru.
> TransGlobe Energy (TGA) is down 12.1% since being added back to the Sweet 16. < TGA is on-track to exit 2011 with over 20,000 BOPD of production, even without West Yemen getting back on-line.

My only concern with the companies in the S-16 is that the Bakken companies will report weather related delays in getting wells completed during the 2nd quarter. North Dakota is drying out and they will catch up on completions in Q3.

I took a hard look at two former S-16 members, KOG & NOG last week. Both are on-track to have very strong second half numbers. Both are pure plays on the Bakkens. 2nd quarter results may be a bit off due to the weather related problems discussed above.

I am checking all of my S-16 forecast models today. An updated S-16 spreadsheet with up-to-date EPS and CFPS forecasts will be available on the website tomorrow.

[dan_s]

New forecast models for KOG and NOG are under the Watch List tab.

[ghrcap]

Dan, is there a typo somehow in your price target conclusion for NOG?

[dan_s]

NOG closed at $18.07 on Friday.

My "Fair Value" estimate is what I believe the stock is worth today. For NOG I came up with just over $26/share.

If they hit their year-end production forecast of 10,000 boepd and oil prices hold up, the Fair Value will be going up. I'm using 11,500 boepd in my forecast model for 2012. Hopefully, that will prove to be very conservative.

This is a very important year for NOG. They need to prove to the market that their production guidance is real.

All of the Bakken operators are going to report weather related delays in getting wells completed during the 2nd quarter. A lot of high volume well had to be shut-in because trucks could not get in to haul off the oil. I do believe they will all show a lot of progress in the 3rd quarter with sharply higher production in Q4.