Energy Prospectus

In Joe's Friday, October 19 daily update, he does a good job of explaining the global weather patterns that are setting what could be the coldest winter in the eastern 2/3rds of the U.S. in over two decades: https://www.weatherbell.com/premium/

He is going to go into more detail on his Saturday Summary, which should be on the website above on Sunday.

There is a common misunderstanding that an El Nino in the Pacific Ocean causes a mild winter in the U.S. That is not true. It depends on where the warm water sits in the Pacific. Joe explains this.

For natural gas prices it is December weather that has the most impact. Big draws from storage in December will cause a "Bidding War" in the spot market for gas supply, which will spill over into the futures market.

EIA is FINALLY starting to see the reality:

"EIA expects Henry Hub natural gas spot prices to average $2.99/million British thermal units in 2018 and $3.12/MMBtu in 2019 with prices ranging from $2.22 to $4.85. Current natural gas prices on NYMEX are in the $3.30 range. EIA expects natural gas inventories to end October at the lowest levels for that time of year since 2005. Although inventory levels are low, EIA expects fuel supplies to be adequate to meet winter demand."