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Concho Resources (CXO) Q3 Results

Posted: Tue Oct 30, 2018 3:58 pm
by dan_s
Outstanding!

MIDLAND, Texas--(BUSINESS WIRE)-- Concho Resources Inc. (NYSE: CXO) (the “Company” or “Concho”) today reported third-quarter 2018 results.

Highlights
Achieved production of 287 MBoepd, exceeding the high end of the Company’s guidance range. < Compares to my forecast of 282,000 Boepd.
Delivered crude oil production of 185 MBopd. < Compares to my forecast of 183,300 BOPD.
Generated cash flow from operating activities greater than capital expenditures, excluding acquisitions, year-to-date.
Recorded a net loss of $199 million, or $1.05 per diluted share.
Adjusted net income totaled $269 million, or $1.42 per diluted share (non-GAAP). < Compares to my forecast of $1.26 EPS and First Call's forecast of $1.09 EPS.
EBITDAX (non-GAAP) was $829 million.
Completed the acquisition of RSP Permian, Inc. < The merger closed on July 19, 2018.
Provided 2019 and 2020 outlook for free cash flow, strong crude oil growth and improving corporate returns.
Announced plans to initiate a regular quarterly dividend of $0.125 per share beginning in first-quarter 2019. The indicated annual rate of $0.50 per share underscores the Company’s commitment to sustainable, profitable growth and value creation.

Tim Leach, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer, commented, “Our strong third quarter results demonstrate Concho’s positive momentum following the acquisition of RSP Permian. We have been disciplined over the last several years – generating free cash flow, prudently growing oil production, reducing our cost structure and building for the future with accretive acquisitions and strategic portfolio management. These efforts position us well for the next stage of our company, which includes delivering high-margin oil growth and initiating a return-of-capital strategy to our shareholders. We are a growth company, and our platform for delivering growth, demonstrating the benefits of scale and enhancing shareholder value, has never been better.”

Re: Concho Resources (CXO) Q3 Results

Posted: Tue Oct 30, 2018 5:13 pm
by dan_s
I have updated my forecast/valuation model for Concho and it will be posted to the EPG website this evening. Q3 results and their guidance clarifies the impact of the merger with RSPP. Frankly, I was surprised how close my forecast model came to their actuals. Maybe I do know something about oil & gas accounting.

I am raising my valuation by $9/share to $193.00/share.

Since their Q2 results and prior to the Q3 results 11 ranked analysts sent reports to Reuters. Their average price target was $188.09. My guess is that their updated reports will have much higher valuations.

Ignore the GAAP Accounting loss for the quarter. GAAP rules are so screwed up for upstream companies that the quarterly results are almost meaningless, primarily because of the mark-to-market adjustments on hedges. Operating cash flow per share is what matters.

Year CFPS
2016A = $9.86
2017A = $11.51
2018
Q1A = $2.68
Q2A = $2.79
Q3A = $3.76
Q4E = $3.96
2018E = $13.19
2019E = $18.98
2020E = $26.05 < First Call
2021E = $30.58 < First Call

Companies with 25% to 30% annual production growth locked in and this much running room s/b trading for ~12X operating cash flow per year.