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PDC Energy (PDCE) Q3 Results

Posted: Mon Nov 05, 2018 7:44 pm
by dan_s
PDC's Q3 results came in slightly lower than my forecast. The share price will go up or down based on how Colorado voters decide on Prop 112.

DENVER, Nov. 05, 2018 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- PDC Energy, Inc. ("PDC" or the "Company") (NASDAQ: PDCE) today reported its 2018 third quarter operating and financial results.
Third Quarter 2018 Highlights

•Production of 10.1 million barrels of oil equivalent (“MMBoe”), or approximately 110,000 barrels of oil equivalent (“Boe”) per day, representing a year-over-year increase of 21 percent from Wattenberg and Delaware basin operations. < This compares to Q2 production of 103,108 Boepd and my Q3 forecast of 114,000 Boepd.

•Oil production of 4.3 million barrels (“MMBbls”), a 27 percent increase year-over-year from Wattenberg and Delaware basin operations.

•Delaware Basin oil price realizations equal to approximately 94 percent of NYMEX average pricing.

CEO Commentary

President and Chief Executive Officer, Bart Brookman commented, “The third quarter offered several positives, including a glimpse of our multi-basin strategy delivering the results and efficiencies needed to propel us through the next several years. Our Wattenberg operating performance is beginning to improve, as production and costs are both trending in the right direction; however, our production continues to be curtailed by the shortfall in midstream capacity in the basin. In the Delaware, our Grizzly Bear downspacing test has moved PDC one-step closer to unlocking the optimal approach to maximizing value through full-field development. We are excited by the knowledge gained through this test and anxiously await the additional downspacing tests currently planned in 2019.”

Adjusted net income, a non-U.S. GAAP measure defined below, was $31.8 million, or $0.48 per diluted share in the third quarter of 2018 compared to adjusted net loss of $253.9 million, or $3.85 per diluted share for the comparable period of 2017.

Net cash from operating activities was $197.0 million in the third quarter of 2018, compared to $148.2 million in the comparable 2017 period. Adjusted cash flows from operations, a non-U.S. GAAP financial measure defined below, were $201.1 million in the third quarter of 2018, compared to $150.9 million in the comparable 2017 period.

Re: PDC Energy (PDCE) Q3 Results

Posted: Tue Nov 06, 2018 9:39 am
by dan_s
I have updated my forecast/valuation model for PDC. It will be posted to the EPG website this afternoon.

My valuation stays at $90.00, which compares to First Call's target price of $73.36.

Most of PDC's production comes from the Colorado DJ Basin. If Prop 112 is approved by the voters, PDC will probably be dropped from the Sweet 16. If it does not pass, PDCE becomes a "Strong Buy" on a lot of analysts' valuations because it is currently trading at less than 4X operating cash flow per share.

Even if Prop 112 passes, PDC will generate ~25% YOY production growth in 2018 and production should continue to move higher as the company will just shift their focus to the Permian Basin.