Energy Prospectus

Working gas in storage was 3,208 Bcf as of Friday, November 2, 2018, according to EIA estimates. This represents a net increase of 65 Bcf from the previous week.
Stocks were 580 Bcf less than last year at this time and 621 Bcf below the five-year average of 3,829 Bcf. At 3,208 Bcf, total working gas is below the five-year historical range.

My forecast has been that storage would top out at ~3,250 Bcf before winter heating season begins. It now looks like storage will be below that number on November 16th.

With the colder than normal weather that is now moving into the Great Lakes Region, we should see just one more small storage build. Then draws should begin the week ending November 16, which is usually the last build before draws begin.

Dr. Bastardi is forecasting a 10-14 day "warm-up" starting late in November before the real winter weather begins. See his daily update: https://www.weatherbell.com/premium/

TPH Morning Notes:

Natural gas inventories built 65bcf, ~5bcf more than expectations, and ~17bcf more than the 5-yr norm (48bcf). Weather adjusted the market was ~3.5bcfd oversupplied. However, market remains ~10.4% (380bcf) below 5-yr mins with just one week left of injection season. Short-term, weather expected to be cooler-than-normal and despite warmer weather materializing in the West, the Northeast remains cold in the 8-14 day forecast. Chance of El Nino remains high (~70%), but cooler weather continues to hold ramping supply (~87.4bcfd) in check. We'll continue to watch LNG exports from Sabine Pass as Cheniere announced yesterday that Train 5 reached 1st LNG in October. Though splashy, the winter outlook will be dominated by weather-linked demand rather than incremental exports.