Natural Gas - Supply & Demand
Posted: Sat Nov 10, 2018 9:51 am
Crude oil prices are primarily set on a global market. Natural gas price are primarily set on regional markets. The U.S. gas market has was over-supplied until mid-2017 when it became clear to me that demand for U.S. gas was exceeding supply. This is why we are about to enter the winter heating season with a dangerously low amount of gas in storage and why gas prices are about to more above $4.00/mcf. I have been telling EPG members for several months that we would start the winter heating season with storage levels ~600 Bcf below the 5-year average. It seemed that no one else noticed, UNTIL NOW. I believe the "Wall Street Gang" will have a "Paradigm Shift" before Thanksgiving and begin to notice how profitable our gassers are with natural gas now firmly over $3.00.
ON NOVEMBER 2, 2018 NATURAL GAS IN U.S. STORAGE WAS 621 BCF BELOW THE 5-YEAR AVERAGE < I told you so!
If we have a normal winter it sets the stage for higher gas prices in 2019 and a banner year for our "gassers". A HUGE increase in export capacity for U.S. natural gas is just getting started. I now believe that by the end of 2020 (maybe sooner) U.S. natural gas prices will move a lot closer to the global price for gas.
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From Stratfor November 8, 2018
The U.S. shale revolution has had a major impact at home, but its echoes have reverberated less elsewhere around the world, at least where natural gas is concerned. That, however, is about to change. By the end of 2018, the United States will launch nine liquefied natural gas export projects that will have a collective liquefaction capacity of 36.7 million tonnes per annum (mtpa). The expansion will boost the country’s capacity to roughly 63 mtpa — a big step up from the mere 1.5 mtpa that existed before 2016.
It all adds up to a big year in 2019. And growth in U.S. LNG exports will continue beyond that because more processing and liquefaction facilities are expected to come online the following year. Producers are also considering additional final investment decisions to construct new facilities beyond that. The consequences of rising U.S. — as well as Australian — LNG exports have already begun to make waves throughout the market, meaning the geopolitical battle over LNG will be front and center next year, particularly among four countries: Qatar, China, Russia and the United States.
Read more here: https://worldview.stratfor.com/article/ ... ssia-china
ON NOVEMBER 2, 2018 NATURAL GAS IN U.S. STORAGE WAS 621 BCF BELOW THE 5-YEAR AVERAGE < I told you so!
If we have a normal winter it sets the stage for higher gas prices in 2019 and a banner year for our "gassers". A HUGE increase in export capacity for U.S. natural gas is just getting started. I now believe that by the end of 2020 (maybe sooner) U.S. natural gas prices will move a lot closer to the global price for gas.
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From Stratfor November 8, 2018
The U.S. shale revolution has had a major impact at home, but its echoes have reverberated less elsewhere around the world, at least where natural gas is concerned. That, however, is about to change. By the end of 2018, the United States will launch nine liquefied natural gas export projects that will have a collective liquefaction capacity of 36.7 million tonnes per annum (mtpa). The expansion will boost the country’s capacity to roughly 63 mtpa — a big step up from the mere 1.5 mtpa that existed before 2016.
It all adds up to a big year in 2019. And growth in U.S. LNG exports will continue beyond that because more processing and liquefaction facilities are expected to come online the following year. Producers are also considering additional final investment decisions to construct new facilities beyond that. The consequences of rising U.S. — as well as Australian — LNG exports have already begun to make waves throughout the market, meaning the geopolitical battle over LNG will be front and center next year, particularly among four countries: Qatar, China, Russia and the United States.
Read more here: https://worldview.stratfor.com/article/ ... ssia-china