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Stock Prices
Posted: Mon Dec 24, 2018 12:47 pm
by mkarpoff
You said exuberantly in your podcast (not a quote) that if all the stars align the stocks that you write about should double. To me, that would be a big disappointment. When oil was $75 recently, you anticipated much higher share prices than what a double would be from today's prices. I am pretty sure I am correct about that, so doesn't that make for a disconnect on your part?
Re: Stock Prices
Posted: Wed Dec 26, 2018 3:43 pm
by dan_s
My current valuations for each stock can be found in the newsletter. As of 11-22-2018 my valuation for the Sweet 16 as a group was 134% above the December 21st share prices.
The negativity hanging over this sector is as bad as I've ever seen. It will take a steady stream of bullish fundamental data to reverse it. Lots of fund managers do rotate money into oversold sectors at the beginning of the year. That would be a good first step.
If WTI does go to $75 AND Wall Street has confidence that it will stay high, then yes there is a lot more upside in the Sweet 16. My valuations are based on a much lower price than $75/bbl for WTI. You can see the oil, gas and NGL prices what I use to value each company at the bottom of each forecast/valuation.
If oil, gas and NGL prices do firm up the share prices will go up or there will be a lot of takeovers.
Re: Stock Prices
Posted: Wed Dec 26, 2018 4:23 pm
by dan_s