Energy Prospectus

At 9:40 AM ET the February NYMEX contract for WTI was up $0.74 to $49.26/bbl. Oil has moved higher the last five trading days.
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LONDON (Reuters) - Oil prices rose on Tuesday, supported by hopes that talks in Beijing between U.S. and Chinese officials might defuse a trade dispute between the world's two biggest economies, while OPEC-led supply cuts also tightened markets.

U.S. Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross said on Monday that there was a "very good chance" of reaching a settlement, while China's Foreign Ministry said Beijing had the "good faith" to resolve trade friction with the United States.

Some analysts warned, however, that the relationship between the superpowers remained shaky and tensions could flare anew.

"Surely, there will be more twists and turns in the saga and increasing U.S. tariffs on Chinese goods after March from 10 percent to 25 percent cannot be excluded," Tamas Varga of PVM Oil Associates said. "For now, however, optimism prevails."

From OilPrice.com

Oil prices continue to post gains, extending a rally that is the longest in 17 months. The latest optimism centers on the ratcheting down of tensions between the U.S. and China, as well as a softer tone from the U.S. Federal Reserve. In the oil market, the OPEC+ cuts are phasing in, while Saudi Arabia has pledged to cut even deeper. “Saudi Arabia will continue to be the decisive factor for the markets this year, just as they were last year,” Eugen Weinberg, head of commodities research at Commerzbank AG in Frankfurt, told Bloomberg. “They can be very convincing when they choose to be. And so we see the potential for Brent crude to go to $70 a barrel over the course of the year.”

Saudi plans cuts to boost prices. Saudi Arabia will reportedly cut oil exports by 800,000 bpd below November levels, going beyond what it had promised as part of the OPEC+ agreement. The Wall Street Journal reports that the Saudis are cutting deeper in hopes of engineering a price rise to $80 per barrel. Oil prices rose sharply on the news on Monday, but the market still seems too soft for a return to $80 per barrel anytime soon. Riyadh is under fiscal pressure as the Saudi budget does not breakeven unless oil prices are in the mid-$80s.
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Oil price forecasts are all over the spectrum, but they are all higher. If Brent goes to $80/bbl, it will drag WTI along to at least $70/bbl. OPEC+ makes the cuts that they agreed to in December, and there is no expectation that they won't, then I think we see Brent moving up to $70/bbl within six months. Brent is currently sitting at $58.60/bbl. - Dan