Natural Gas Storage Report - Jan 10

[dan_s]

Working gas in storage was 2,614 Bcf as of Friday, January 4, 2019, according to EIA estimates. This represents a net decrease of 91 Bcf from the previous week. Stocks were 204 Bcf less than last year at this time and 464 Bcf below the five-year average of 3,078 Bcf. At 2,614 Bcf, total working gas is below the five-year historical range.

We should see one more below average draw from storage next week, but the weather pattern is changing and much colder weather is now forecast for the eastern U.S. in the 2nd half of January.

The five-year average draws from January 5 through the end of the winter heating season (March 31st) are 1,560 Bcf.
So, just average draws will take storage down to 1,054 Bcf at the beginning of the refill season. < My SWAG is that storage is taken below a TCF before this winter is over.
> The average in storage at the end of March is 1,637 Bcf
> Last winter the draws continued until April 20th, taking storage down to 1,281 Bcf. The lowest storage level in the last 20 years was 825 Bcf in April, 2014 and ngas sold for $5.09/MMBtu that month and stayed over $4.00 until a mild December, 2014..

The winter of 2013-2014 is an analog to this winter.

A significant winter snow storm will be moving from Missouri to North Carolina this weekend. My old stomping ground of St. Louis is expected to get 6 to 8 inches of snow.
Watch the daily updates here for a preview of the much colder weather heading to the eastern U.S. https://www.weatherbell.com/premium/

Note that much colder weather is also spreading across Europe. This will increase demand for heating oil. Eastern Europe depends heavily on Russia for space heating fuels.

[dan_s]

Commodity price assumptions for all of the forecast/valuation models on our website:

2019
Q1: $45/bbl for WTI and $3.00/mcf for HH gas
Q2: $50/bbl and $2.50/mcf
Q3: $55/bbl and $2.50/mcf
Q4: $60/bbl and $3.00/mcf

2020: $60/bbl and $2.75/mcf

Regional differentials, hedges and marketing contracts are considered in coming up with the prices I use in each individual company forecast.

Note that some of the South Texas (Eagle Ford) companies are selling oil under contracts tied to the LLS market at a $5/bbl premium to WTI. For example, Lonestar (LONE) sells its oil into the LLS physical market and gets cash settlements on their hedges that are based on WTI prices.