Energy Prospectus

Take a look at this forecast: https://www.wunderground.com/ndfdimage/ ... mint&msg=6

What this means is that for the two weeks ending January 25 more than 500 BCF will be drawn from storage. If the dark blues (low temps in single digits) drive deep into Texas and hang into early Feb we may see natural gas rationing in the large cities around the Great Lakes. Plus, all of us on the annual EPG Cruise (Feb 3 - 10) will enjoy the warmth of the Western Caribbean even more!

I don't know if natural gas will reach my $5.00/MMBtu prediction, but the price should be back over $4 soon.

Storage under 1,000 BCF on March 31st should elevate summer (refill season) prices to stay high and the full year 2019 gas to top the $2.75/mcf price that I am using in my forecast models.

Dan,

UNG will be shifting from NYMEX February 2019 to March 2019 physical contracts tomorrow through Thursday. If there were storage supply issues, it seems like March contracts have potential to get bid up more than February? Am I understanding this correctly?

Thx
Dave

Yes, and if winter weather extend into April (like it did last year) then all of the Q2 NYMEX contracts have a lot of upside.

Something else besides weather makes me more bullish about the gassers:
https://rbnenergy.com/let-me-move-you-p ... ts-in-2019

Watch the daily updates here: https://www.weatherbell.com/premium

All of the weather forecast websites now see the SUPER COLD weather coming the end of January. We are likely to see a RECORD DRAW FROM STORAGE for the week ending Feb 1st and I will be amazed if we don't see gas rationing in several large cities.

Also, Marcellus/Utica gas production will be impacted because when super cold and deep snow combine in SW PA we will see lots of "freeze offs" at the wellhead.