Energy Prospectus

Goldman Sachs expects OPEC to succeed in clearing what it has deemed excessive oil supply by April, when the latest production cut deal will be reviewed at a meeting of the cartel and its partners. Goldman’s commodity chief Jeffrey Currie told CNBC "OPEC is pursuing a shock and awe strategy," cutting production faster and deeper than the investment bank expected. This suggests that supply will tighten sufficiently by April for OPEC to call the mission accomplished.

Read more: https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/G ... April.html

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I disagree with GS that OPEC+ will raise their production quotas this summer and oil prices will drift lower. OPEC+ may need to raise production in 2H2019 because the global oil market will be short oil by Q3. What I do NOT agree with, is that it will cause oil prices to decline. Saudi Arabia NEEDS $75/bbl Brent to balance their budget.

Barclays: "$70 Oil Is Right Around the Corner"

Oil traders are taking on an “overly bearish tone,” paying too much attention to Trump’s tweets, macroeconomic fragility and expected U.S. shale growth.

“We think more critical and bullish determinants of the oil price and oil price volatility in the year ahead are worth reviewing,” Barclays wrote in a March 3 report. While there are plenty of signs that the global economy is slowing – weak car sales and manufacturing data from China, flat growth in Europe, and a slowing GDP rate in the fourth quarter for the U.S. – oil demand has held steady.

The main source of uncertainty and oil market instability this year, Barclays says, is how OPEC+ responds to U.S. government policy. That’s a tricky conclusion since U.S. policy, as well as the decision-making process, is itself impossible to predict. But while many other analysts have argued that Trump’s actions are increasingly one of the major sources of uncertainty in the oil market, Barclays says OPEC will carry more weight.

“We retain our more bullish view of $70 Brent for the year, but we are not taking it easy like President Trump and Minister Al-Falih and see new risks to the downside. We think the biggest source of uncertainty for oil markets this year is not the US, but OPEC’s response to US policy decisions,” Barclays said. The bank says that there is a “tight price range where both are happy.”

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-Gene ... orner.html
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MY SWAG: $60/bbl WTI sometime in April