Energy Prospectus

Working gas in storage was 1,390 Bcf as of Friday, March 1, 2019, according to EIA estimates. This represents a net decrease of 149 Bcf from the previous week.
Stocks were 243 Bcf less than last year at this time and 464 Bcf below the five-year average of 1,854 Bcf. At 1,390 Bcf, total working gas is within the five-year historical range.

Obviously, there is a going to be a MUCH LARGER draw from storage for the week ending March 8th, so my SWAG is that storage on March 31st is going to be under 1,100 BCF.

Go here http://americanoilman.homestead.com/GasStorage.html to confirm that the 5-year average for storage at the end of the winter heating season is 1,637 BCF.

Why is this important? Because refilling storage is required each year and the refill season is ~200 days long. So... if storage is 500 Bcf lower than where it should be on March 31st, that adds 2.5 Bcfpd more demand during April to October.

Dan
looks like the perfect storm for natgas.... plus LNG exports are increasing
where do you see natgas futures ranging in 2019?

I believe natural gas will average $2.75/MMBtu. I know that is low based on the fundamentals, but the traders that set the gas price firmly believe EIA's projections that a flood of associated gas from the Permian Basin will rapidly refill storage. I have been tracking gas supply/demand for many years and (so far) I see no evidence that supply will overrun demand. EIA was preaching the same story last year and we began the winter heating season with storage 600 BCF below the 5-year average.

I have seen a few analysts raise their ngas price forecasts, but not very much.

Keep an eye on the weather. If colder than normal weather extends into April, it will improve the outlook for gas prices because it will shorten the refill season like it did last year.