Energy Prospectus

Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report

for week ending March 8, 2019 | Released: March 14, 2019 at 10:30 a.m. | Next Release: March 21, 2019


Working gas in storage was 1,186 Bcf as of Friday, March 8, 2019, according to EIA estimates. This represents a net decrease of 204 Bcf from the previous week. Stocks were 359 Bcf less than last year at this time and 569 Bcf below the five-year average of 1,755 Bcf. At 1,186 Bcf, total working gas is within the five-year historical range.

For information on sampling error in this report, see Estimated Measures of Sampling Variability table below.
Working Gas in Underground Storage Compared with Five-Year Range

Last week's draw from storage is a bit higher than what I expected. There is now a good chance we see storage dip near 1,050 BCF by the end of March.

From TPH: "Natural gas inventories drew 204bcf, ~6bcf less than expectations, but 105bcf more than the 5-yr norm. Deficit to the 5-yr norm continues to deepen (+7% w/w), and now stands at 32% (569bcf). Variance to normal (and last year) continues to be driven by colder-than-normal weather (HDDs were ~28% above normal) as the week's withdrawal was more than double the 5-yr norm (99bcf) and last year (88bcf). Weather-adjusted, the market was ~balanced and over the past weeks has trended to a slight undersupply. Looking forward, forecasts are calling for a bifurcation in temperatures with the North experiencing warmer-than-normal temperatures and the South experiencing colder-than-normal temperature while longer-term, temperatures are trending towards the seasonal average before we enter spring. Finally, US production (up <100mmcfd w/w) has yet to recover as maintenance / outages in the Permian and DJ have kept a lid on volumes."

With refill season starting in April with storage over 500 BCF below the 5-year average, ngas price should remain near $3 until storage catches up.