Global Oil Market getting tighter - April 5
Posted: Fri Apr 05, 2019 9:49 am
From TPH Morning Report dated 4-5-2019
Brazil February Production: Volumes down notably ~140,000 bpd m/m as early 2019 performance continues to underwhelm
Notable drop in Brazil production for month of February with total production down 142mbpd m/m at 2.49mmbbpd (follows January production down 60mbpd m/m). The monthly downtick was driven by production declines in fields across the board with Brazil's legacy fields (-150mbpd) and Paraque das Baleias (-30mbpd) seeing the most weakness. Specifically, P-43 (banned) and FPSO Capixaba (scheduled maintenance) platforms were primary drivers of legacy volume declines. Sapinhoa (+25mbpd) and Tartaruga Verde & Mestica (+20mbpd) were only two areas that saw a slight monthly production uplift. February saw first production from both Lula Norte and Buzios #3, although utilization at all recent startups continues to remain quite low; Lula #8 saw slight uptick to ~25%, Buzios #2 and Buzios #3 sub 10%, and Lula Norte at ~16%. We continue to take a conservative approach in our expectations for Brazilian growth in 2019 (est. +250mbpd vs. IEA 375mbpd), with early results, whether via continued underperformance in ramping up new FPSOs or maintenance/legacy declines, confirming the approach thus far.
Brazil February Production: Volumes down notably ~140,000 bpd m/m as early 2019 performance continues to underwhelm
Notable drop in Brazil production for month of February with total production down 142mbpd m/m at 2.49mmbbpd (follows January production down 60mbpd m/m). The monthly downtick was driven by production declines in fields across the board with Brazil's legacy fields (-150mbpd) and Paraque das Baleias (-30mbpd) seeing the most weakness. Specifically, P-43 (banned) and FPSO Capixaba (scheduled maintenance) platforms were primary drivers of legacy volume declines. Sapinhoa (+25mbpd) and Tartaruga Verde & Mestica (+20mbpd) were only two areas that saw a slight monthly production uplift. February saw first production from both Lula Norte and Buzios #3, although utilization at all recent startups continues to remain quite low; Lula #8 saw slight uptick to ~25%, Buzios #2 and Buzios #3 sub 10%, and Lula Norte at ~16%. We continue to take a conservative approach in our expectations for Brazilian growth in 2019 (est. +250mbpd vs. IEA 375mbpd), with early results, whether via continued underperformance in ramping up new FPSOs or maintenance/legacy declines, confirming the approach thus far.