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Carrizo Oil & Gas (CRZO) Q1 Results - May 8

Posted: Wed May 08, 2019 2:13 pm
by dan_s
Carrizo reported first quarter of 2019 net income attributable to common shareholders of $146.2 million, or $1.59 and $1.58 per basic and diluted share, respectively, compared to net income attributable to common shareholders of $14.7 million, or $0.18 per basic and diluted share, in the first quarter of 2018. The net income attributable to common shareholders for the first quarter of 2019 and the first quarter of 2018 include certain items typically excluded from published estimates by the investment community. Adjusted net income attributable to common shareholders, which excludes the impact of these items as described in the non-GAAP reconciliation tables below, for the first quarter of 2019 was $43.6 million, or $0.47 per diluted share, compared to $39.5 million, or $0.48 per diluted share, in the first quarter of 2018. < Adjusted Net Income compares to my forecast of $22.5 million, $0.24 per share.

For the first quarter of 2019, Adjusted EBITDA was $152.9 million. < Compares to my forecast of $125.3 million for Q1.

First Quarter 2019 Highlights

Total production of 61,960 Boe/d, 21% above the first quarter of 2018

Crude oil production of 40,727 Bbls/d, 19% above the first quarter of 2018

Production from multipads in the Eagle Ford Shale and Delaware Basin expected to drive a 7%-9% increase in volumes during the second quarter

Early results from initial multi-layer, co-development test in the Delaware Basin have been encouraging

Greater-than-expected efficiency gains have yielded further well cost reductions across the asset portfolio

2019 DC&I capital expenditure guidance maintained at $525-$575 million

2019 production guidance reiterated at 66,800-67,800 Boe/d

Carrizo is reiterating its 2019 production guidance of 66,800-67,800 Boe/d. Crude oil production is expected to account for 63% of the Company's production for the year, while total liquids are expected to account for 80%. The 2019 guidance range equates to annual growth of approximately 11% at the midpoint. For the second quarter of the year, Carrizo expects production to be 66,500-67,500 Boe/d. This implies an increase of 7%-9% versus the first quarter of the year as the Company’s production benefits from its multipad projects in the Eagle Ford Shale and Delaware Basin. For the quarter, crude oil is expected to account for 64% of production, while total liquids are expected to account for 81%. A full summary of Carrizo’s guidance is provided in the attached tables.

S.P. “Chip” Johnson, IV, Carrizo’s President and CEO, commented on the results, “During the first quarter, we executed on our plan in all areas of our business. Our recent operational focus has been on the development of several highly-efficient multipad projects, which we completed on time and within budget. While these larger-scale projects are expected to result in greater efficiencies, and thus, improved project-level economics, they also result in a more uneven production profile. We saw this impact in the first quarter, as the limited number of wells that we turned to sales late in the fourth quarter and early in the first quarter, combined with a higher level of planned downtime for offsetting completion activity, led to a sequential decline in our production. However, we are now reaping the rewards of this activity as we began bringing on wells from our two large-scale multipad projects in the Eagle Ford Shale during the first quarter and our initial multipad project in the Delaware Basin during the second quarter. As a result, we expect to see a significant increase in our production during the current quarter.

Re: Carrizo Oil & Gas (CRZO) Q1 Results - May 8

Posted: Wed May 08, 2019 2:59 pm
by dan_s
Carrizo's Net Asset Value is approximately $21.00/share based on their 12-31-2018 3rd party reserve report. Just using P1 reserves.

Two firms have submitted fresh reports to Reuters:
> Northland Securities rates it a BUY with a price target of $25.00
> Williams Capital rates it a BUY with a price target of $18.00

I think CRZO is a "Screaming Takeover Target". I am raising my valuation (current break-up value) to $37.50/share. My updated forecast/valuation model will be posted to the EPG website this evening.

Several weeks ago there was a rumor that SM Energy was interested in merging with CRZO. I still think that is possible.

Re: Carrizo Oil & Gas (CRZO) Q1 Results - May 8

Posted: Wed May 08, 2019 4:04 pm
by dan_s
Michael S. Scialla at Stifel: Carrizo Oil & Gas, Inc. (CRZO, $11.13, Buy; Target $41.00)

Carrizo's 1Q 2019 Results Tops Street,

Well Costs Below Our Forecast - We view the release as positive.
The positives include: i) a 3% 1Q19 oil production beat; 1Q19 CFPS beat consensus
by 9%; iii) the 2019 capital plan remained intact despite higher oil prices; iv) 2Q19 oil
production guidance was 2% above consensus; v) Eagle Ford/Delaware well costs
are 21%/10% below our NAV estimates. The negatives include: i) 1Q19 capex was
7% above consensus
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The only negative above is offset by the announced surge in production in Q2 because Carrizo placed two multi-well pads on-line in March and April. - Dan