Libya - a million barrels of oil supply is at risk
Posted: Sat May 18, 2019 11:21 am
Stalemate In Libya Could Cause Next Major Oil Supply Outage
By Nick Cunningham - May 16, 2019, 6:00 PM CDT
The fighting in Libya has devolved into a protracted stalemate, which does not bode well for the country’s oil production.
General Khalifa Haftar and his militia, the Libyan National Army (LNA), continue their assault on Tripoli and the internationally-recognized Government of National Accord (GNA). The attack began in early April, but the LNA has been bogged down on the outskirts of the city.
For weeks, Libya’s oil production has held up surprisingly well. Output even rose a bit in April by 71,000 bpd, reaching 1.176 million barrels per day (mb/d), according to OPEC. The increase is impressive in the context of the outbreak of civil war.
But even though Libya managed to prevent production and export outages over the last few weeks, it’s not clear that successful streak can continue, especially because a stalemate between the two factions only increases the odds that the country’s oil sector gets caught in the crosshairs.
“Now the struggle is extending to Libya’s surviving institutions, the Central Bank of Libya (CBL) and the National Oil Corporation (NOC),” Hamish Kinnear, Senior Analyst for Verisk Maplecroft, wrote in a report on May 13.
At issue is the peculiar arrangement that has, to date, been behind Libya’s success in ramping up oil production over the past year. The GNA based in Tripoli has international recognition and control over the country’s most important institutions such as the central bank and the National Oil Company. But it doesn’t have a sizable military. The LNA, on the other hand, has the guns, but not the recognition or political legitimacy.
Read more: https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/S ... utage.html
By Nick Cunningham - May 16, 2019, 6:00 PM CDT
The fighting in Libya has devolved into a protracted stalemate, which does not bode well for the country’s oil production.
General Khalifa Haftar and his militia, the Libyan National Army (LNA), continue their assault on Tripoli and the internationally-recognized Government of National Accord (GNA). The attack began in early April, but the LNA has been bogged down on the outskirts of the city.
For weeks, Libya’s oil production has held up surprisingly well. Output even rose a bit in April by 71,000 bpd, reaching 1.176 million barrels per day (mb/d), according to OPEC. The increase is impressive in the context of the outbreak of civil war.
But even though Libya managed to prevent production and export outages over the last few weeks, it’s not clear that successful streak can continue, especially because a stalemate between the two factions only increases the odds that the country’s oil sector gets caught in the crosshairs.
“Now the struggle is extending to Libya’s surviving institutions, the Central Bank of Libya (CBL) and the National Oil Corporation (NOC),” Hamish Kinnear, Senior Analyst for Verisk Maplecroft, wrote in a report on May 13.
At issue is the peculiar arrangement that has, to date, been behind Libya’s success in ramping up oil production over the past year. The GNA based in Tripoli has international recognition and control over the country’s most important institutions such as the central bank and the National Oil Company. But it doesn’t have a sizable military. The LNA, on the other hand, has the guns, but not the recognition or political legitimacy.
Read more: https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/S ... utage.html