Energy Prospectus

"Oil plunged on Friday after China announced new tariffs on U.S. goods, including crude oil. The move reignited fears of economic recession. Meanwhile, global financial markets are closely watching the Jackson Hole symposium, an elite financial summit that may provide some clues into the thinking of the U.S. Federal Reserve." - Oilprice.com

Oil price moves because of FEAR rarely stay around for long.

More from Oilprice.com

U.S. says Iran exports fall below 100,000 bpd. U.S. State Department special representative for Iran, Brian Hook, said that Iran’s oil exports have plunged below 100,000 bpd, although independent assessments from S&P Global Platts puts the figure closer to 450,000 bpd. “We have effectively zeroed out Iran's export of oil,” Hook said during a press briefing in New York. “I can't overstate the significance of this accomplishment.”

U.S. to add 61% of all new oil and gas. Over the next decade, the U.S. will account for 61 percent of all new oil and gas output in the world. The added output is set to “drown the world in oil,” Global Witness said in a report. < This won't happen with WTI in the $50s. As I point out in the Flash Alert sent out on Tuesday, U.S. oil production growth has stopped already.
For the U.S. to sustain oil production growth we need a much higher active rig count than we have today.

This morning Baker Hughes announced a decline of 22 active drilling rigs in North America.

Rigs drilling for oil in the U.S. dropped by 16 and horizontal rigs dropped by 18.

Rigs drilling for oil in Canada dropped by 6.

If not for the "noise" of the Tariff War, this report would have push oil prices higher. The U.S. cannot increase oil production at the current active rig count. If oil stays in the mid-$50s the active rig count will keep falling. The U.S. oil decline rate has double in three years. Once oil production declines in the U.S. it take months to reverse the decline even if oil spikes to $100/bbl because it takes time to mobilize all of the rigs, other equipment and people to ramp up a D&C program.