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Sweet 16 Update - Nov 2

Posted: Fri Nov 01, 2019 5:40 pm
by dan_s
The following Sweet 16 have release solid Q3 results and I have update all 7 forecast/valuation model. All of them have plenty of liquidity and lots of running room.
Antero Resources (AR)
Concho Resources (CXO)
Continental Resources (CLR)
Encana (ECA)
Matador Resources (MTDR)
Range Resources (RRC) - We sent out the update profile on Nov 1
Solaris Oilfield Infrastructure (SOI)

Updating the Sweet 16 is my top priority when fresh results come pouring in, but I'm also updating the small-caps and high yield companies as fast as I can.
Gulfport Energy (GPOR) and SM Energy (SM) have been updated and posted to the EPG website.

I will update MMP, MPLX, OKE and VNOM this weekend.

Oil price was up on Friday because the active drilling rig count continues to fall rapidly. See: https://rigcount.bakerhughes.com/rig-count-overview
Also, the situation in Iraq is getting much worse. Just Google "Iran news".
Watch the video at this link: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/ ... nment-iran

Re: Sweet 16 Update - Nov 2

Posted: Sat Nov 02, 2019 9:57 am
by dan_s
The main Sweet 16 spreadsheet will be posted to the EPG website on Saturday afternoon.

The Sweet 16 moved 5.3% higher last week, but it still down 24.5% YTD. All of the companies are now trading near the bottom of the their 52-week range despite being in better shape today than they were a year ago. Parsley Energy (PE) and Talos Energy (TALO) are the only stocks up YTD.

I have highlighted all the seven companies that have released Q3 results and I have update the numbers for all seven of them. I did update all of the other nine forecast/valuation models just prior to the last newsletter.

Under Tab 2 of the spreadsheet you can view my stock valuations compared to First Call's current price targets. First Call is a service provided by Reuters. First Call's price targets are just the average of all forecasts submitted to Reuters, some of which are over six months old. Note that most analysts are now using much lower oil prices than I am for future periods. A few of them are now using $45/bbl WTI and $2.00/MMBtu HH gas. At the bottom of each individual company forecast model I now show a few recent analysts price targets for each company. First Call's forecasts for revenue, EPS and operating CFPS are shown on each individual company forecast model.