Oil Price Forecast - Dec 10
Posted: Tue Dec 10, 2019 9:47 am
My opinion is that the "Right Price" for WTI is in the $65 to $75 range.
Raymond James Energy Industry Brief dated December 9, 2019
Today we are updating our oil model and forecast following OPEC's meeting last week. First, the "good news": the OPEC+Russia coalition upsized its production cuts by an additional 500,000 bpd. Furthermore, it has become even more evident that U.S. oil producers will take a cautious stance on 2020 capital spending, which translates into an even lower rig count and even slower production growth than we had been modeling. On the other hand, we are also taking this opportunity to eliminate the "missing barrels" adjustment - explained in more detail later - from our global oil model. This might sound like an esoteric point for energy nerds like ourselves, but trust us, this is needle-moving from the standpoint of forecasting global petroleum inventories.
Putting these changes together, our updated model points to global inventories adding 220,000 bpd in 2019 and declining by 310,000 bpd in 2020 - slightly less bullish versus our previous estimate, thus leading to a modest $5 reduction in our 2020 oil price forecasts to $65 and $70 for WTI and Brent, respectively. We still anticipate oil price strength in the second half of 2020, but the cyclical high for prices seems more likely to occur in 2021 rather than 2020. Thus, we are initiating a 2021 forecast of $75 WTI and $80 Brent. We are also lowering our long-term (2022 and beyond) forecast by $5 due to a reduction in our long-term demand growth assumptions, taking WTI to $70 and Brent to $75. To underscore, all of these forecasts are still well above consensus and futures strip pricing, so we remain emphatically in the bullish camp on oil.
It's important to point out though, the market can only be balanced in 2021 if the U.S. rig count increases by more than 30% from current levels. A rig count increase of that magnitude can only happen with a MUCH higher oil price than we see today. Absent a meaningful increase in the rig count, U.S. oil supply would likely plateau or may even decline.
MY TAKE: For the U.S. Raymond James is forecasting that the active drilling rig count will bounce back from under 800 today to over 1,000 next summer. In my opinion, it will take WTI being firmly over $65/bbl before we see a steady increase in the active rig count. I believe the active rig count will continue to drift lower in Q1 no matter what oil prices do.
Another opinion: OPEC Deal Could Send Oil To $70
By Nick Cunningham - Dec 09, 2019, 7:00 PM CST
Read: https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-Gene ... To-70.html
Raymond James Energy Industry Brief dated December 9, 2019
Today we are updating our oil model and forecast following OPEC's meeting last week. First, the "good news": the OPEC+Russia coalition upsized its production cuts by an additional 500,000 bpd. Furthermore, it has become even more evident that U.S. oil producers will take a cautious stance on 2020 capital spending, which translates into an even lower rig count and even slower production growth than we had been modeling. On the other hand, we are also taking this opportunity to eliminate the "missing barrels" adjustment - explained in more detail later - from our global oil model. This might sound like an esoteric point for energy nerds like ourselves, but trust us, this is needle-moving from the standpoint of forecasting global petroleum inventories.
Putting these changes together, our updated model points to global inventories adding 220,000 bpd in 2019 and declining by 310,000 bpd in 2020 - slightly less bullish versus our previous estimate, thus leading to a modest $5 reduction in our 2020 oil price forecasts to $65 and $70 for WTI and Brent, respectively. We still anticipate oil price strength in the second half of 2020, but the cyclical high for prices seems more likely to occur in 2021 rather than 2020. Thus, we are initiating a 2021 forecast of $75 WTI and $80 Brent. We are also lowering our long-term (2022 and beyond) forecast by $5 due to a reduction in our long-term demand growth assumptions, taking WTI to $70 and Brent to $75. To underscore, all of these forecasts are still well above consensus and futures strip pricing, so we remain emphatically in the bullish camp on oil.
It's important to point out though, the market can only be balanced in 2021 if the U.S. rig count increases by more than 30% from current levels. A rig count increase of that magnitude can only happen with a MUCH higher oil price than we see today. Absent a meaningful increase in the rig count, U.S. oil supply would likely plateau or may even decline.
MY TAKE: For the U.S. Raymond James is forecasting that the active drilling rig count will bounce back from under 800 today to over 1,000 next summer. In my opinion, it will take WTI being firmly over $65/bbl before we see a steady increase in the active rig count. I believe the active rig count will continue to drift lower in Q1 no matter what oil prices do.
Another opinion: OPEC Deal Could Send Oil To $70
By Nick Cunningham - Dec 09, 2019, 7:00 PM CST
Read: https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-Gene ... To-70.html