How long does it take from spud date to first oil production
Posted: Fri Jan 03, 2020 1:05 pm
This is in response to a question that I get from time to time.
If upstream companies do ramp up drilling because of higher oil prices, how long will it take to see an increase in oil production?
Simple answer: Approximately four months. That is the average time it takes to go into a new area, build the location, get a rig on location to drill multiple wells from each pad and then arrange all the completion equipment, crews, water, sand, chemicals and other stuff needed to complete the well. This assumes the location is in an area with available pipeline access.
Some upstream companies do have pads with current wells already tied into a pipeline that have additional open slots for new wells from the same pad. Those wells could be drilled, completed and placed online much faster; in less than a month.
Because of where we are in the year (winter), if WTI spiked to $100/bbl tomorrow, I doubt we'd see rapid deployment of more drilling rigs and an even slower deployment of more completion crews. Therefore, I doubt we'd see a spike in U.S. oil production until mid-summer.
If a full-blown war between the U.S. & Iran does happen (vs the "limited war" we have today) I think WTI might go to $70/bbl. If so, I still doubt we'd see upstream companies ramp up drilling activity quickly.
MY GUESS: The U.S. & Israel are "locked and loaded". Iran better be very careful.
If upstream companies do ramp up drilling because of higher oil prices, how long will it take to see an increase in oil production?
Simple answer: Approximately four months. That is the average time it takes to go into a new area, build the location, get a rig on location to drill multiple wells from each pad and then arrange all the completion equipment, crews, water, sand, chemicals and other stuff needed to complete the well. This assumes the location is in an area with available pipeline access.
Some upstream companies do have pads with current wells already tied into a pipeline that have additional open slots for new wells from the same pad. Those wells could be drilled, completed and placed online much faster; in less than a month.
Because of where we are in the year (winter), if WTI spiked to $100/bbl tomorrow, I doubt we'd see rapid deployment of more drilling rigs and an even slower deployment of more completion crews. Therefore, I doubt we'd see a spike in U.S. oil production until mid-summer.
If a full-blown war between the U.S. & Iran does happen (vs the "limited war" we have today) I think WTI might go to $70/bbl. If so, I still doubt we'd see upstream companies ramp up drilling activity quickly.
MY GUESS: The U.S. & Israel are "locked and loaded". Iran better be very careful.