Energy Prospectus

I am updating the spreadsheet twice a day. Once in the morning and once at around 7 PM ET.

214,894 Confirmed Cases
-83,313 People who have totally recovered and been release from the hospital
- 8,732 Deaths < 91.4% are in China, Italy, Iran and Spain.
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122,849 Active Cases with 94% considered "mild" and expected to fully recover
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Considering that we live in a world of almost 7.8 Billion people, these are very small numbers.
Even if the number of active cases with COVID-19 is 10X higher it is still just 0.01581% of this world's population. Are we going to shut down the world's economy for less than 0.0002 of the population, especially when over 95% of those who get it recover within two weeks?

Reports from China, Japan and South Korea continue to show that they have the virus under control as the number of active cases keeps falling. I would love it if someone from the WHO or CDC would comment on why these three Asian nations with very high population density are now reporting that they have it under control.

Italy has the worst problem, with most active cases and their number of deaths will soon jump over China. 90% of each days increase in Confirmed Cases is coming from Europe. Italy, Spain, Germany and France all have more cases than the USA.

South Korea has dropped from #3 to #7 as France jumped over them this afternoon.

USA is still in #8 slot, but encouraging to me is the fact that the number of people who have recovered is finally on the rise. Big increase today in the number of people released from the hospital is encouraging.

Japan has dropped all the way to #17 with just 716 active cases. Again, Japan was one of the first countries with confirmed cases. How have they gotten it under control?

"Are we going to shut down the world's economy for less than 0.0002 of the population, especially when over 95% of those who get it recover within two weeks?"

You either don't understand the concept of "flattening the curve," or you are ignoring its ethical foundation. I hope it's the former, but because the concept has been explained repeatedly I fear it's the latter.

While significantly reducing mortality is one of its goals (and that should be enough), the larger issue is whether (many) lives can be saved by significantly reducing the rate of escalation, both reducing incidence and spreading cases out over time so as to not overwhelm resources. The goal is (1) to avoid having to ration intensive care beds and ventilators on a massive scale (as the Italians are doing now), and (2) to have sufficient doctors, nurses and respiratory therapists for the expected patient load at all times during the course of the epidemic. The Italians are begging the world to help replace their insufficient, and now depleted, provider ranks as the providers, themselves, become ill.

The containment/mitigation strategies now in place have temporarily shut down large segments of many countries' economies, not "the world's economy." Yes, the economic cost is severe. Italy was late in taking such action and is now paying a horrifying price, so horrible as to have belatedly resulted in draconian mitigation efforts in an effort to reverse it. They lost 475 on 3/18, and their incidence and mortality curves are still rising/steepening. Their death rate is 2978/35713 = 0.0834. https://www.worldometers.info/coronavir ... try/italy/

Without containment/mitigation, the rate of escalation in the U.S. could result in a catastrophe as bad as Italy's. The U.S does not have anywhere close to the resources (people, facilities, equipment) needed to treat COVID-19 patients if the disease were allowed to spread at the rate it would without aggressive containment/mitigation strategies. Would it be acceptable for hundreds of Americans to die every day due to rationing of care because we were unwilling to suffer the economic cost of such containment measures in order to protect stock portfolios, jobs and businesses?

If the Trump administration had chosen the course Italy first chose, and as a result thousands of Americans were to die in inadequately equipped and understaffed (for the patient load) hospitals "unnecessarily" over the next few months, would we feel good about having made that choice? Speaking in terms some would understand, would you expect Mr. Trump to be reelected under such circumstances?

Flattening the curve, if people would cooperate, should stretch out the incidence of cases over time so that our healthcare system (including the unselfish people working in it) is not overwhelmed and possibly avoid the horror show now underway in Italy.

"Reports from China, Japan and South Korea continue to show that they have the virus under control as the number of active cases keeps falling. I would love it if someone from the WHO or CDC would comment on why these three Asian nations with very high population density are now reporting that they have it under control."

To the extent China's data are trustworthy, they, Japan and South Korea instituted as or more disruptive containment/mitigation measures (and, especially in South Korea, more testing to facilitate quarantines), earlier in the escalation phases of their epidemics, than our society would tolerate. If you have ever lived in South Korea, you know how much the government can control its people when it wishes to do so.

"USA is still in #8 slot, but encouraging to me is the fact that the number of people who have recovered is finally on the rise. Big increase today in the number of people released from the hospital is encouraging."

Don't be too confident. As of midnight on 3/18 (7 hours after your post), the U.S. is in the #6 slot (by number of cases, at 9,464), but we have not yet ramped up testing on any significant scale. We have 155 deaths and 108 recovered, leaving 9,201 active cases (many of whom don't require hospitalization). We have only 29 reported cases so far per 1 million pop. (vs. Italy's 591), but our case and mortality curves are steepening daily, so we are very early in the escalation phase of the epidemic. https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

And again, absolute numbers at this stage mean little when the major issue driving our strategy is can we avoid overwhelming resources.

Public health officials, despite being pressed, still are unwilling to say that we will have enough resources to care adequately for all who will be infected. Their response is, instead, that it is too early to know (they estimate we're at least two weeks away), and the degree to which Americans will "sacrifice" their lifestyle for a relatively short period to flatten the curve is unknowable. Although many millenials are unwilling to sacrifice their spring break partying, much of the country appears to be adhering to the measures requested.

If there's anything to be encouraged about, it would be that South Korea's mortality rate so far is 91/8565 = 0.011 (about 1/8 Italy's). Hopefully that is a reflection of not just their having tested so many (and thus their reported case number is high), but also that they were aggressive about trying experimental therapies and were successful, and from which we will learn and benefit. And they have succeeded in flattening their curve, quite possibly in part due to those experimental therapies. https://www.worldometers.info/coronavir ... uth-korea/.

Currently, our death rate is 155/9464 = 0.0164, but again we have not ramped up testing, we are much earlier in our epidemic than is South Korea, and most importantly we have not yet flattened our curve (we're still rapidly escalating). https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/ We benefited from early imposition of travel restrictions from affected countries, and we got a reasonable start on containment/mitigation. But we're early, and still escalating.

Hopefully today's Task Force press conference with FDA involvement will include that they have found one or more experimental therapies sufficiently promising (and safe) as to authorize/encourage their use on an expedited basis.