Energy Prospectus

Ignore the article's headline, it is misleading. They are, instead, following a "don't test, don't tell" policy re COVID-19

https://asiatimes.com/2020/03/japans-wi ... -covid-19/

Excerpt:

The current “treat the symptoms approach” seems to be working. If you go to the doctor in Japan with symptoms of pneumonia or breathing difficulties, they are very unlikely to give you a test for the novel coronavirus, but are likely to give you a CT scan or X-ray.

If medical pros find you have pneumonia, they will begin treating you. There is a very good chance you will be cured. And if you are cured, they probably will not test you for coronavirus. So a case of Covid-19 vanishes – literally and statistically.

What if you aren’t cured?
Hiding unpleasant truths

After the Tokyo Electric Power nuclear disaster at Fukushima in 2011, it took the government months to acknowledge that a meltdown had actually taken place. Tokyo has lied in the past and bureaucrats do cover up scandals. Unsurprisingly, at one time roughly 90% of the Japanese population did not believe their government’s statistics, according to an opinion poll taken in the Nikkei Shimbun.

Recently, the Ministry of Health initially refused to test employees who undertook quarantine duty on the virus-infested Diamond Princess cruise ship. All were sent back to work and 10 later turned out to be infected.

Japan appears to be severely and deliberately under-testing for the coronavirus, although it has stepped it up in recent weeks. On March 2, the number of tests per million people in neighboring South Korea averaged 4,099. In Japan, that figure was a mere 72.

Stats are murkier for the dead. Japan only does autopsies in 10% of suspicious deaths. If someone dies of pneumonia in a hospital, the odds of an autopsy are low. Japan has not released data on the number of autopsies performed to verify whether coronavirus was the cause of death. There is occasionally a post-mortem analysis of tissue samples – but rarely.

Possibly, coronavirus deaths are being hidden among pneumonia fatalities. South Korea has had 120 deaths from Covid-19, but Japan only 49. So, it is possible that the more populous Japan is sweeping Covid-19 fatalities under the rug?

South Korea also had a mass outbreak in the southeastern city of Daegu among a religious sect. Japan has had no such calamity.

So what are the latest figures for pneumonia deaths?

The Ministry of Health, Labor and Welfare told Asia Times: “We only issue those numbers [in a comprehensive survey] every three years.” And the ministry’s latest nationwide hospital admissions data date back to November, before the pandemic struck.
Unspoken strategy

Still, there are no reports of mass, secret burials. And an official at the ministry – speaking on condition of anonymity – offered Asia Times an unauthorized explanation of Japan’s approach.

“We are in a period where containment is probably not realistic,” the official said. “We need to focus on treating the serious cases and most experts would quietly agree. If everyone is urged to get testing, then medical institutions will overflow with people who do not need to be there. This not only detracts from taking care of more critical cases, it could indirectly result in a greater health crisis.”

Jefferies:

The Tokyo Lockdown. Until 24 hours ago, Tokyo seemed to be headed back to normalcy amid the global covid-19 pandemic. But things are rapidly changing and my channel check (i.e. friends & family & colleagues) show rising concern of a potential lock down coming to Tokyo. Japan has not been testing enough (“Don’t test, Don’t tell”) and anecdotally, I hear cases that sick elderlies have been turned away at the hospital when they went to get tested for covid-19. Restaurants are still packed, Shibuya is still packed, people are still going into office for work. But confirmed cases are starting to accelerate and things are changing very rapidly. Tokyo Governor just asked residents to stay home over the weekend. I am no expert on pandemic but staying indoors for 2 days ain’t gonna put a dent in the curve. Full scale lockdown may come soon. Supermarket shelves are clearing out. Below is an excellent commentary from our Head of Japan - Meade Thompson.

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Until last night, I genuinely did not believe that a full shutdown of Tokyo could be a scenario that had to be taken seriously. Things are changing, from what I can see. Possibly quickly. Here are my initial observations.
There’s a rising risk of Topix having seen the best of this leg of the rebound, with the possibility of a Tokyo shutdown serving as the catalyst for a short-term peak. While it is too early to know, events suggest to me that it is a scenario that requires consideration now.

THE PUBLIC FOCUS ON THE “500” NUMBER
Apologies to those readers don’t speak Japanese.
I attach here a clip of an Asahi TV News program.
• https://news.tv-asahi.co.jp/news_societ ... 79882.html

The show highlights how Tokyo corona case numbers are rising.
Even the title of the show implies that crossing the “500” threshold has significance.
• I would take the “500 Tokyo cases” number on board.
• I see it repeated in many articles and it appears to resonate with the news providers as an important “level”.

The clip also shows the pace of case increases around the country and in Tokyo, where daily case numbers are rising (16 people on 23 March).
• Note that yesterday (not included in the chart below), the daily count for Tokyo actually rose DoD (17).
o https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2020/ ... nrZVIgzYdU
• Prior to 17 March, the number of new cases per day was under 5 usually.


THE PUBLIC FOCUS ON THE 8th of APRIL
In the screen shot below, note how the line immediately above the red section (which reads “Two Weeks From Now – Patient Numbers – 530 People”) shows the week of 2-8 April.
In fact, if you read a lot of the Japanese articles on Corona, you will quickly note that 8 April is a date that pops up often.
It is, for example, the date by which many regions expect to have schools back open.


TWO WEEKS FROM TODAY
In exactly two weeks, society is meant to reopen (using the school system as our guide).
• But daily new Tokyo case numbers are suddenly tripling so far this week.
o Tokyo actually just overtook Hokkaido in case numbers, so this is no longer a “distant” problem.
o ASAHI NEWS ARTICLE: Tokyo now the hot spot for virus infections with 171 cases
http://www.asahi.com/ajw/articles/13243134
• The popular understanding is that the incubation period of corona is around two weeks.