Energy Prospectus

Ira Longini, a leading epidemiologist, is estimating the peak of deaths from the coronavirus in the United States will be in about three weeks and says it could possibly lead to a partial lifting of shelter-in-place directives. That would allow many people to return to work, CNN reported.

Longini, a professor at the University of Florida, is advising the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. CNN reported his comments in a story posted Wednesday.

"I would guess the U.S. will hit a peak in deaths in the next two to three weeks, as the doubling time seems to be about two to three days," he said. "Maybe a partial lifting of the shelter-in-place for those less vulnerable may make some sense, in about three weeks. By then, much of the damage will have been done."

The timetable would generally fit the one outlined by President Donald Trump, who has said he would like to get the economy back open by the Easter holiday on April 12.

Longini was asked about the risk when the virus circulated again in the following weeks.

"If it were limited, and we continued to protect the most vulnerable, that may be acceptable for now," he said. "We can also keep an eye on China as they begin to relax restrictions there."

William Schaffner, an infectious disease specialist at Vanderbilt University, said the U.S. could reach the peak in three to six weeks.

"My notions are harmonious in that I also anticipate ... [the next] three to six weeks will be critical here in the United States," he said.
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What jumps out at me from looking at Johns Hopkins University data by country each day, the number of Confirmed Cases spikes up for a few months in each country and then the rate of growth slows as the population adapt. The virus took hold first in the Asian countries. After three months, the number of people recovering each day is higher than the number of new confirmed cases. Also, the number of people dying each day slows down. Net result is that the number of "Active Cases" starts going down. All of the large Asian nations seem to have the virus under control. The number of Active Cases in Asia has been on decline for almost 30 days. Even in Iran and now Italy, the number of people recovering is picking up pace.
South Korea is very encouraging: https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/how- ... e-n1167376

My "wild ass guess" is that the number of Active Cases in the U.S. will peak at 100,000 to 120,000 in mid-April and then go on steady decline.

China's number of Active Cases peaked at 45,000. Now go ahead and tell us how China and all of the Asian nations are lying to the world.

I think we should be able to trust Japan.

Japan was one of the first countries outside of China to document a case of the disease, officially termed COVID-19, as early as January 16. The government was slow to close borders despite its close proximity to the disease's origin in Wuhan, only shuttering incoming flights from Hubei province on February 1 and later extending the ban to China's Zhejiang on February 13.

A "Second Wuhan" was feared. Prime Minister Shinzo Abe's popularity rating plummeted and critics called on him to resign.

But the wild contagion calamity and the inundation of medical facilities seemingly hasn't happened. Why?

"Japan relied on a strategy of quickly identifying clusters of new cases and then imposing containment measures to prevent a larger outbreak," Bruce Klingner, a specialist in Korean and Japanese affairs as the senior research fellow for Northeast Asia at the Heritage Foundation, told Fox News. "With relatively low numbers of COVID cases in Japan, there has been less international focus on the government's response than on South Korea's energetic testing program. While Seoul's actions have been described as the gold standard for the world, Japan adopted a less energetic, critics would assert lackadaisical, testing, and closure strategy."

As of Tuesday, March 24 Japan – a nation with more than 126 million – had only documented 1,140 cases and 42 deaths. According to Bloomberg, Japan to-date has one of the lowest per capita number of infections within the realm of developed countries. Yes, this could be a massive cover-up by all the doctors in the country.

Read More: https://www.foxnews.com/world/japan-avo ... s-outbreak
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Remember the Diamond Princess cruise ship that was stuck in Japan: As of this afternoon 10 of the 712 confirmed cases have died. Considering the average age on every cruise I've been on (40) is much older than the general population, I find that encouraging.

"I think we should be able to trust Japan."

"As of Tuesday, March 24 Japan – a nation with more than 126 million – had only documented 1,140 cases and 42 deaths. According to Bloomberg, Japan to-date has one of the lowest per capita number of infections within the realm of developed countries."

Not for long, unfortunately.

Gov't panel says coronavirus infections feared "rampant" in Japan

KYODO NEWS KYODO NEWS - 4 hours ago - 13:35 | All, Japan, Coronavirus

A government panel of experts on Thursday said new-coronavirus infections in Japan appear highly likely to be "rampant," an assessment paving the way for the launch of a national headquarters to better respond to the outbreak.

The setting up of the headquarters sets off a process that would enable Prime Minister Shinzo Abe to declare a state of emergency if necessary under a recently revised law.

Health minister Katsunobu Kato submitted the panel's assessment to Abe and the Cabinet is expected to decide on the launch of the headquarters, according to sources familiar with the matter.

The assessment came amid growing concerns about a spike in infections in urban areas. On Wednesday, Tokyo reported 41 cases, the largest daily increase in the country's 47 prefectures, prompting its governor Yuriko Koike to say the capital faces "an important phase in preventing an explosive rise." Tokyoites are asked to stay indoors over the weekend.

Once the national headquarters is established, the government will draw up a basic policy on how to respond to the new coronavirus.

But it doesn't automatically mean a state of emergency will be declared. The prime minister still needs to seek opinions from an advisory panel of medical experts before he can declare one.

....

The number of coronavirus cases has topped 2,000 in Japan, including about 700 from the Diamond Princess cruise ship that was quarantined for two weeks near Tokyo.

Mar 26, 2020 | KYODO NEWS

https://english.kyodonews.net/news/2020 ... japan.html

"My "wild ass guess" is that the number of Active Cases in the U.S. will peak at 100,000 to 120,000 in mid-April and then go on steady decline."

Unfortunately, Dan, we are not talking about an oil well.

What epidemiologist says anything other than what those quoted by WSJ article I posted are saying about the manner in which COVID-19 can be defeated? There are differences of opinion regarding time required to peak, but the general methodology is the same. Reaching peak active case numbers, then "flattening the curve," accomplishes only the first goal: buying time.

Based on events of the last several days (reasonable compliance with mitigation protocols), it looks like we may succeed in “flattening the curve” of new cases within a few weeks. That hopefully will buy us time while we get equipped and develop therapies, and it hopefully will prevent most of our health care system from being overwhelmed in this first wave.

If the WSJ authors and the experts they quote are correct, however, it will take a much longer time before we get to either “herd immunity” (over 50% infected and recovered, and therefore immune; elsewhere I have read 60-70%) or have a widely available, effective vaccine. US population of 330 million x .60 = 198 million. With U.S. case fatality rate (CFR) of just 1% (conservative, it’s currently 1.5%), that would mean ~ 2 million would die as we get to 60% immunity, if one assumes all humans are susceptible to incubation/infection (i.e., if no one has natural immunity; but, maybe some will be found naturally immune, a concept Dr. Birx discussed -- hope so). Public officials likely wouldn’t let that happen, so that we will be waiting for a vaccine (many months away) to assure protection. We should be able to lower the CFR, though, with effective therapies. Hope they are really effective.

And all of that assumes that all those who become infected and then recover would develop antibody immunity that is durable over an extended period of months, at least until a vaccine is available (or maybe for a longer period); we don't yet know that will be the case. Hope so, but uncertain at this point.

Until we have a vaccine, then, except for limited activities in places where test results show very low transmission and new case numbers, helped by new testing methods that facilitate prompt isolation, and thus phased relaxation of restrictions in very low risk areas, how will it be safe for someone who has not been infected and who wants to avoid getting infected, until a vaccine is available, to go out and resume "normal" activities that necessarily involve large gatherings or close contact? How will those over 65, over 70, or those with underlying conditions, view the risk?

If two months from now in Houston there are, at any one time, only about 50 reported active cases, with a new reported case rate of only 10-20 per week, and only 15% of the population has thus far been infected and recovered, would pubic health authorities give the green light for large gatherings, for restaurants to open without social distancing? If they do, will everyone who has not yet been infected decide to take the risk of going out without practicing social distancing, i.e., "return to normal and just take a chance"?