Oil & Gas Prices - April 30
Posted: Thu Apr 30, 2020 9:48 am
Opening Prices:
> WTI is up $1.89 to $16.95/Bbl, and Brent is up $2.59 to $25.13/Bbl.
> Natural gas is down 1.9c to $1.850/MMBtu.
Closing Prices:
> WTI prompt month (JUN 20) was up $3.78 on the day, to settle at $18.84/Bbl.
> NG prompt month (JUN 20) was up $0.080 on the day, to settle at $1.949/MMBtu.
Natural Gas prices for the coming winter; NYMEX Futures contracts closed today at:
$2.966 for Dec 2020
$3.107 for Jan 2021
$3.066 for Feb 2021
$2.929 for Mar 2021
Comments below are from Raymond James:
This week's petroleum inventories update was bullish relative to consensus."Big Three" petroleum inventories (crude, gasoline, distillates — including SPR) rose by 11.6 MMBbls, versus consensus estimates calling for a build of 16.7 MMBbls and a seasonal build of 2.4 MMBbls. Turning to crude, total inventories built 10.1 MMBbls, versus consensus calling for a build of 10.6 MMBbls and a normal seasonal build of 1.9 MMBbls. Refinery utilization rose to 69.6% from 67.6% last week. Total petroleum imports were 7.1 MMBbls per day, up from last week’s 6.4 MMBbls per day. Total petroleum product demand increased 11.8% after last week’s 2.2% increase. On a four-week moving average basis, there is a 28.1% y/y decrease in total demand.
The unprecedentedly large OPEC+Russia deal from three weeks ago still falls short of balancing the oil market in the nearterm. This is evidenced by the especially severe storage pressures in Cushing, Oklahoma – which, alongside forced selling by funds, led to the extraordinary sight of negative WTI prices earlier this month. Part of the issue is that we predict only about half of the official cuts will actually materialize. More importantly, the sheer scale of the COVID-related disruptions in transportation and economic activity is such that even (hypothetically) full compliance would still not be enough. We estimate that, during the current quarter, 20 million bpd (or 20%) of global demand is being effectively erased. With 3.7 billion people around the world having been covered by lockdowns/stay-at-home orders, the impact on oil demand is vastly more severe than during the global financial crisis. Needless to say, the timing of improvement in demand, enabled by the easing of lockdowns – a process that is already underway for 2.6 billion people – and broader economic normalization, will largely be a function of medical and public health developments vis-à-vis the virus. Reflecting the growing optimism that the worst of the demand shock is in the rearview, the 12-month futures strip ($25.19/Bbl for WTI and $29.17/Bbl for Brent) is showing steep contango.
> WTI is up $1.89 to $16.95/Bbl, and Brent is up $2.59 to $25.13/Bbl.
> Natural gas is down 1.9c to $1.850/MMBtu.
Closing Prices:
> WTI prompt month (JUN 20) was up $3.78 on the day, to settle at $18.84/Bbl.
> NG prompt month (JUN 20) was up $0.080 on the day, to settle at $1.949/MMBtu.
Natural Gas prices for the coming winter; NYMEX Futures contracts closed today at:
$2.966 for Dec 2020
$3.107 for Jan 2021
$3.066 for Feb 2021
$2.929 for Mar 2021
Comments below are from Raymond James:
This week's petroleum inventories update was bullish relative to consensus."Big Three" petroleum inventories (crude, gasoline, distillates — including SPR) rose by 11.6 MMBbls, versus consensus estimates calling for a build of 16.7 MMBbls and a seasonal build of 2.4 MMBbls. Turning to crude, total inventories built 10.1 MMBbls, versus consensus calling for a build of 10.6 MMBbls and a normal seasonal build of 1.9 MMBbls. Refinery utilization rose to 69.6% from 67.6% last week. Total petroleum imports were 7.1 MMBbls per day, up from last week’s 6.4 MMBbls per day. Total petroleum product demand increased 11.8% after last week’s 2.2% increase. On a four-week moving average basis, there is a 28.1% y/y decrease in total demand.
The unprecedentedly large OPEC+Russia deal from three weeks ago still falls short of balancing the oil market in the nearterm. This is evidenced by the especially severe storage pressures in Cushing, Oklahoma – which, alongside forced selling by funds, led to the extraordinary sight of negative WTI prices earlier this month. Part of the issue is that we predict only about half of the official cuts will actually materialize. More importantly, the sheer scale of the COVID-related disruptions in transportation and economic activity is such that even (hypothetically) full compliance would still not be enough. We estimate that, during the current quarter, 20 million bpd (or 20%) of global demand is being effectively erased. With 3.7 billion people around the world having been covered by lockdowns/stay-at-home orders, the impact on oil demand is vastly more severe than during the global financial crisis. Needless to say, the timing of improvement in demand, enabled by the easing of lockdowns – a process that is already underway for 2.6 billion people – and broader economic normalization, will largely be a function of medical and public health developments vis-à-vis the virus. Reflecting the growing optimism that the worst of the demand shock is in the rearview, the 12-month futures strip ($25.19/Bbl for WTI and $29.17/Bbl for Brent) is showing steep contango.