Energy Prospectus

Read: https://www.forbes.com/sites/scottcarpe ... 82d07110dc

We are in "unprecedented times" and no one really knows how soon demand for oil based products will return to "normal" or even what normal is. However, there is one theory that demand for gasoline will snap back this summer because humans will drive their own cars more. It is already happening in Asia.

New report from Raymond James:

"Four weeks ago, we wrote something that all of us would have deemed unthinkable just a few months earlier. Specifically, we forecasted that COVID's impact on global oil demand would peak at a staggering 24 million bpd in April, i.e. wiping out one-quarter of pre-COVID demand. Compared to that, our forecast of 15 million bpd in June and 8 million bpd in September - calamitous under any previous circumstances - look positively bullish. While there is a large error bar around all these numbers, over the past month we have gained increasing confidence that the worst is in the rearview mirror: COVID's demand impact has started to subside. Reasons for this confidence include (1) our in-house tracking of economic reopening policies in 80 countries; (2) read-through from traffic congestion data; and (3) recent commentary by refiners and other energy companies."

"But, as Churchill might have said: this is merely the end of the beginning. Today we are providing our initial thoughts on how the post-crisis "new normal" might look. We anticipate that some changes in travel patterns, especially vis-a-vis aviation, will prove long-lasting, which means that it is emphatically not realistic to expect a return to 2019 demand levels until 2022 at the earliest."

If you'd like to read the report, send me an email and I will forward it to you: dmsteffens@comcast.net